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baseball | Monday, September 26, 2022 11:57 AM

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Moneyline Best Bet: Seabold’s Struggles Continue

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Moneyline Best Bet: Seabold’s Struggles Continue
Contributor: The Canadian Press / Alamy Stock Photo

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, September 26th

The Baltimore Orioles are in Boston for the first of a four-game series with the Red Sox on Monday night. Baltimore owns an 8-7 record in the season series to date, but hasn’t been at its best in September with just an 11-12 mark thus far. It isn’t any prettier for the lowly Red Sox, who have a 9-12 record on the month and sit just 37-37 at Fenway Park in 2022. Boston has lost five in a row and hands the ball to rookie pitcher Connor Seabold in the series opener.

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Tue, Sep 27th 00:10 (UK time)

Seabold matches up with journeyman Jordan Lyles. Lyles is the modern-day version of an innings eater, hurling 170 frames so far this season, but hardly setting the world on fire in the process with an ERA+ of 90 and an xERA of 4.93. Aside from above average command, Lyles ranks poorly, giving up a tonne of hard contact and rarely striking guys out. He also allowed eight earned runs to the Red Sox earlier this month.

Still, Seabold’s statistics inspire even less confidence. He was good rather than great in triple-A, and has a 10.47 ERA in the big leagues. Admittedly, he has just once start in the Majors since July, but four earned runs in five innings against the Reds doesn’t suggest he’s ready to be an above-average arm. Seabold has -0.7 bWAR in just four starts and a brutal 2.20 WHIP.

This Orioles offence isn’t exactly potent, with a 100 wRC+ since the start of August, yet they are a high-contact team with just a 22% strikeout rate over that period, which could be problematic for Seabold, who has allowed a bucket load of hits in the Majors this season. The Red Sox offence has been slightly more effective over that period with a 105 wRC+, and they are up in eighth in hard contact.


Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Best Bet

Neither offence is anything special. Both of these pitchers are vulnerable, though, which could lead us to a high-scoring game. It is hard, however, to see why the Orioles are underdogs here. They have dropped off a bit, but they are still a better team than Boston over the last few months.

There is little to choose between the bullpens by xFIP since the start of last month, and the Orioles have a massive advantage in ERA. Homefield is a slight factor in Boston’s favour, yet there is little from Seabold to indicate he can keep them in this one. Lyles has his struggles, of course, but there is at least a chance he can pitch into the later innings and hand over to the back-end of the bullpen.

Baltimore is a good bet at this price despite their so-so record on the road.

  • Selection: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 2.25 (Boyle Sports)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:30 pm on September 26th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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