baseball | Thursday, July 28, 2022 1:21 PM (Revised at: Monday, August 1, 2022 12:55 AM)

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Moneyline Best Bet: Red Sox Slump Continues at Fenway

Sam Cox

Boston Red Sox Vs Cleveland Guardians Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday, July 28th

Owners of a brutal 6-17 record in July, the Boston Red Sox close out their four-game series with the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday 28th at Fenway Park. Boston is aiming to split the set after falling on Tuesday and Wednesday to drop to the bottom of the American League East.

Cleveland is only three ahead in the loss column despite sitting second in the AL Central. They are on a 10-6 run either side of the break and have scored 15 runs in the last two games.

In this article:

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bet

Boston Red Sox Vs Cleveland Guardians Preview

Fri, Jul 29. 00:10 (UK time)

Thursday’s matchup sees the aptly named Kutter Crawford take the hill for the Red Sox against Triston Mckenzie of the Guardians. Crawford, pitching in his first full Major League season, has an ERA of 4.50 but an xERA a shade below four. Added to the rotation due to Boston’s injury issues, Crawford has allowed six earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts.

Formerly a top prospect, Mckenzie is yet to live up to that reputation in the bigs. The right-hander’s 3.11 ERA is deceptive – his xERA is almost identical to that of Crawford. McKenzie is trending in the right direction, however, with a stunning 0.34 ERA in 26.2 July innings.

The starting pitching duel firmly favours the Guardians even with very similar expected numbers. Mckenzie is pitching as well as he ever has. Crawford is still a relative unknown as a starter, but Boston cannot reasonably expect a shutdown game from the second-year arm.

The bullpen is also a clear advantage for Cleveland. They are top 10 in xFIP since the start of June, while Boston languishes below average. The Red Sox bullpen has already cost them one game this series and leaked runs in their other loss. Tyler Danish and Matt Strahm being on the injured list further hampers their pitching depth.

Turn to the offence, and it’s a familiar story. Cleveland is far from a run-production machine, but they are up in eighth in wRC+ this month. Boston languishes in 24th by the same metric with the joint-lowest walk rate over that span. The Red Sox are also fourth in strikeout rate in July.

Boston Red Sox Vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bet

Nothing has been going right for Boston of late, and it’s hard to see that changing against Mckenzie on Thursday.

Cleveland has been playing solid baseball in all facets over the last few weeks, putting them in serious contention in the Central. While the offence might not put up seven or eight as it has in the last two days, there’s still value backing the road team to wrap up a series win.