Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Best Bet: Expecting Runs At Fenway Park
Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Best Bet: Tuesday, June 27th
The Miami Marlins and Boston Red Sox begin their midweek series at Fenway Park on Tuesday night. Boston sits five games behind the Marlins in the loss column. While the Red Sox are bottom of MLB’s strongest division, the Marlins are sitting pretty in the National League Wildcard race.
Miami is having an excellent season despite the struggles of 2022 Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who is starting this game. Alcantara’s ERA is north of five. He has given up four or more earned runs in six of his previous eight starts, yet Miami has won three of his last four outings.
Garrett Whitlock gets the ball for Boston, owning a 4.50 ERA. The Red Sox have gone 5-3 in his starts this season, but he allowed four earned runs in a loss to the Twins last time out.
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This doesn’t exactly look poised to be a pitchers’ duel. Whitlock and Alcantara both rank below league average in xERA. Both have exhibited good control, but they are not generating much swing and miss. The total is set at 9.5 here, which might seem on the high end. This reflects two struggling pitchers, however, and two offences with enough firepower to put up a few runs apiece.
Boston is 11th in wRC+ over the last month. Miami is only at 97 wRC+, but their offence has been making a huge amount of contact, ranking as one of the best teams at hitting for average (powered by Luis Arraez’s historic season). All it takes is a bit of batted-ball luck and Miami can do damage against Whitlock, even if their power is lacking at times.
While Boston has the edge offensively, Miami has the superior bullpen. Only the Giants have a better reliever FIP in June. Boston is middle-of-the-pack with a very low strikeout rate from their relievers.
Bet365 makes the Red Sox favourites for this game (albeit narrowly), and it’s hard to see why. Alcantara might have been a long way off his Cy Young form, but his underlying metrics are still slightly better than Whitlock’s.
Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins Best Bet
Miami has covered the run line in 58.6% of their games as an away underdog. Boston has gone 9-13 on the run line when favoured at home.
The over has landed in 60.5% of games at Fenway Park in 2023. Sure, the Marlins are not exactly an explosive offensive team, but this pitching matchup suggests we could see a fair few runs early on. We could easily get most of the way towards this over before the starters leave the game.
At 2.75, there’s great value on this one. We get some insurance against Alcantara losing out to Whitlock, while backing a high-scoring game to open this series.
- Selection: Miami Marlins +1.5 and over 9.5 total runs
- Best Odds: 2.75 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 3/10
Odds as at 12:00 pm on June 27th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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