Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Gausman to Dominate Sox

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet: Friday, July, 22nd

The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox resume a ferocious battle in the American League East on July 22nd. It’s the first game of the second half for the two ballclubs, and books can find little to choose between the two teams with Kevin Gausman and Nathan Eovaldi on the mound.

Toronto won its last three before the break, while it’s six losses in seven for the Red Sox. Boston faces a pivotal couple of weeks – if the poor run continues, they could become sellers at the deadline.

In this article:

• Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
• Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

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Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview

Sat, Jul 23. 00:10 (UK time)

Gausman is a Cy Young contender and the leader in fWAR among American League starters. His combination of the splitter and slider makes him a nightmare to face. The former Giant is in the 100th percentile in chase rate this term and owns a 3.56 xERA to accompany his 2.87 ERA. He has allowed one earned run in 21 innings against the Red Sox in 2022.

As has been the case throughout Eovaldi’s career, he has missed time this season. This will be his first start since last month, and he’s generally had to ride some luck when he has been on the mound with his 3.34 ERA being almost a full run lower than his expected mark.

He displays excellent command, but hitters are squaring up his pitches on a regular basis. This is a particular concern with the fastball and slider, which both allow an xwOBA over .400.

Toronto is the fifth-best team in the league when it comes to hitting sliders and ninth against fastballs. Boston, meanwhile, face a true ace in Gausman while their offence has been subpar of late. They are 17th in wRC+ since the start of June and has been hitting the ball into the ground far more than any lineup desires.

In stark contrast, the Jays are second to only the Yankees in wRC+ over the same period. Only Atlanta is making hard contact more frequently.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

It’s a surprise to see the odds so close for this game. Sure, Toronto has a 20-24 road record, but Boston is only 23-20 at Fenway Park in 2022, and their pre-All-Star performances don’t inspire much confidence.

This Red Sox offence has lacked depth in recent years. They have already had multiple difficult nights against Gausman this season, and we are expecting another on Friday.

On the other side of this duel, Eovaldi could struggle in his return from injury. Even if he pitches well, the Jays will get a long look at the Sox bullpen. We really like the value on a Toronto win here.

• Selection: Toronto Blue Jays to WIn (OT Incl)
• Best Odds: 2.05 (Boyle Sports)
• Stakes: 7/10

Odds as of 03:30 pm July 22nd, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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