baseball | Thursday, August 18, 2022 12:06 PM (Revised at: Thursday, August 18, 2022 12:07 PM)

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Moneyline Best Bet: Astros See Off ChiSox

Sam Cox

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday, August 18th

The Houston Astros wrap up their four-game series with the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at Guaranteed Rate Field. Chicago has won two of the first three, with Houston taking game three on Wednesday night. One of the hottest teams in baseball over the last month, the White Sox are making a push for the American League Central. Houston, though, still has a 14-game lead in the loss column.

In this article:

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Preview
Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Best Bet

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Preview

Thu, Aug 18. 19:10 (UK time)

Luis Garcia takes the ball for the Astros, matching up with Lucas Giolito of the White Sox. Garcia has hit a bit of a rough patch, pitching to an ERA north of five in August. Giolito has hovered around league average all year long, which has continued even with the White Sox winning more games. The right-hander ranks below league average by the majority of advanced metrics, including a walk rate that sits in just the 38th percentile.

While the two are relatively well matched through traditional numbers, Garcia has a clear advantage in quality of contact allowed and command. Houston’s 25-year-old has a 3.43 xERA, almost a full run lower than Giolito’s mark.

Giolito’s walk woes are a concern heading into this one. As ever, Houston makes pitchers work hard for their outs, and they are sixth in walk rate since the start of June. For Garcia, this matchup appears more favourable, even with the ChiSox sitting ninth in wRC+ over that time period. Chicago is only around league average in production against cutters, which Garcia throws 30% of the time. The pitch keeps hitters off balance alongside his relatively soft fastball – Garcia’s cutter allows an xwOBA of just .238.

Having pitched more than five innings just once in his last five starts, Giolito is bound to hand over to the White Sox bullpen early on. Chicago’s relief corps has improved of late, placing seventh in ERA since the beginning of July, but Houston’s relief arms have been every bit as impactful. Sixth in ERA over that spell and top in strikeout rate, their bullpen can shut down the White Sox if Garcia leaves early.

Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Best Bet

The Astros might not be quite as dominant on the road, yet their 37-25 record is still impressive. While the White Sox are trending in the right direction, their 9-12 record when Giolito takes the ball is a factor to keep in mind here.

Houston is only narrowly favoured, which is a surprise given Garcia’s performances in 2022. Sure, he’s not been at his best of late, but he doesn’t need to shut down the White Sox for the Astros to win this game. Five or six frames for two or three runs should be enough to set up a series-equalling win.