baseball | Tuesday, August 30, 2022 9:43 AM

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Moneyline Best Bet: Singer Gets the Better of Giolito

Sam Cox

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday, August 30th

The Kansas City Royals are in the windy city to begin a three-game series with the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night. Chicago is on a brutal 2-9 run, effectively ending their contention for the American League Central crown. Kansas City remains in the depths of a rebuild, but has a 9-7 record against the ChiSox in 2022, and has won 25 of 55 games since the start of July.

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Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Preview
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Best Bet

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Preview

Wed, Aug 31. 01:10 (UK time)

Former first-round pick Brady Singer gets the ball for the Royals against Lucas Giolito of the White Sox. Singer has a 3.15 ERA on the year, but has ridden some luck, which is indicated by a 3.71 xERA. Giolito has been on the other side of that, with an ERA over five, which comes in over a run higher than his expected numbers. Simply put, these pitchers have been closer than their traditional statistics might indicate.

Consistency has been the problem for Giolito – he has had eight starts with four or more earned runs, but he’s also had eight starts with one or none earned.

There is a more obvious trajectory for Singer’s season. The Royals right hander struggled significantly in June, but has bounced back in a big way, posting a sub-three ERA since the start of July. There is a tendency to give up hard contact, yet Singer still ranks above average by xwOBA and has posted career-high walk and strikeout rates.

If we give Singer an edge over the unpredictable Giolito, the White Sox appear to have an advantage on offence. Chicago has a 103 wRC+ since the beginning of the month, with the Royals at just 88 by the same metric. The home team have been poor of late, though, and their recent record has to be taken into account.

When we turn to the respective bullpens, it isn’t pretty for either ballclub. Both rank in the bottom 10 in xFIP in August. It becomes all the more important that Singer has pitched six or more frames in his last nine starts. Giolito has thrown more than five innings just twice in his previous seven outings.

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals Best Bet

Some bettors may be put off by the Royals’ abysmal 20-40 record on the road. Sure, this is a factor to keep in mind, but the White Sox are just 30-34 at home and come into this game off a series sweep at the hands of the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks.

Chicago is clearly the better team overall, but that hasn’t been the case over the last couple of weeks. The Royals are 11-7 in Singer’s starts, and as slight underdogs, they are good value to move to 12-7.