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baseball | Tuesday, July 26, 2022 9:20 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, July 26, 2022 9:21 AM)

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Lopez Shuts Down Reds Offense

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Lopez Shuts Down Reds Offense
Contributor: UPI / Alamy Stock Photo

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday, July 26th

The Miami Marlins are in Cincinnati on Tuesday evening for the second of a four-game set with the Reds. Miami was blown out 11-2 on Monday with Trevor Rogers enduring another brutal outing, but they are again betting favourites for Tuesday’s contest.

Cincinnati has the second-worst record in the National League coming into this contest. The Marlins are still just about in the wildcard hunt.

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Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Preview

Tue, Jul 26. 23:40 (UK time)

Hard-throwing rookie Hunter Greene is on the hill for the Reds. Pablo Lopez gets the ball for Miami. The Marlins right-hander is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, conceding five earned runs and three home runs to the Texas Rangers last time out. Greene wasn’t much better with four runs allowed in five frames against St Louis last time out – Cincy’s young stud owns a 6.06 ERA in July.

Lopez’s ERA for the season is just above three, while Greene is up at 5.78. The expected numbers are a more accurate display of where these pitchers are at. Greene has struggled with walks, but his xERA is 4.48, and Lopez’s expected number is over 3.80.

Where Lopez has figured out who he is at the Major League level, Greene is a raw talent and very much a work in progress. Greene generates a bucket load of swings and misses, but he has a tendency to allow hard contact.

We could see Greene rack up a few Ks on Tuesday night. Miami ranks in the bottom 10 in strikeout rate this season, and this is an offence which has struggled of late.

This is an even better matchup for Lopez, though. Only the Pirates, Athletics and Tigers have posted a lower wRC+ this season. He has excelled when facing subpar line ups of late, giving up three earned runs over 18.1 innings against the Rockies, Nationals and Pirates since June 22nd.

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Best Bet

It’s understandable to not have much faith in either team here. The Marlins’ offence has been up and down at best, and Greene has the stuff to make it a very difficult night for the Fish. Still, Lopez is the more polished of the two starters, and while he’s had some tough outings of late, he’s been able to really shut down the league’s weaker offensive teams.

Both bullpens are well below league average, throwing in an element of randomness in the late innings. Perhaps Miami blow another lead, but we’re pretty confident they can ride Lopez to an important Tuesday night win. This is a good price given the Marlins’ advantage in the starting pitching department.

  • Selection: Miami Marlins to Win (OT Incl)
  • Best Odds: 1.91 (Marathonet)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 11:30 am July 26, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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