baseball | Monday, September 12, 2022 12:35 PM

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline Best Bet: Cincy Does Enough to Beat Wilson

Sam Cox

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, September 12th

The Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates don’t have a great deal to play for in September. The National League Central foes begin a four-game series on Monday night at Great American Ball Park, with the Reds owning a six-game advantage in the loss column. They have also got the better of Pittsburgh in 2022, with a 7-5 record for the season series. Cincinnati has gone 22-25 in the second half, compared with the Pirates’ brutal 12-34 mark.

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Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

Mon, Sep 12. 23:40 (UK time)

Their respective records over the last few weeks make it unsurprising that the Reds are favoured for this one, albeit narrowly. Cincinnati has been slightly better at home than on the road, and the Pirates are just 23-45 away from PNC Park.

Former Atlanta Brave Bryse Wilson is on the mound for the road team here. Pittsburgh has an 8-8 record in his starts this year, which is a bit misleading considering a 6.11 ERA and a -1.3 bWAR mark for the campaign. Aside from control, Wilson ranks poorly across the board.

Veteran Mike Minor matches up with Wilson. Minor hasn’t had his best year by any stretch, but his 4.43 xERA is a more accurate representation than the bloated ERA figure. Minor allowed just one earned run in 5.1 innings last time out, but has endured two difficult starts against the Pirates.

That, however, doesn’t seem likely to be the case on Monday night. Only two teams have a worse wRC+ than the Pirates over the last month. Pittsburgh also has a meager 80 wRC+ when facing lefties in 2022.

In contrast, the Reds are 15th by wRC+ against right handers since August 12th. This is an offence which has shown some signs of life lately, and should be able to take advantage of the struggling Wilson.

As ever, the bullpens are a weak point for these two rebuilders, but even in that department, Cincinnati has an advantage. Their relief corps is 15th in xFIP over the last month, while the Pirates are again among the worst in the league. That gap is exaggerated further by the respective ERA marks.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet

The season-long records make it look like these teams are closer than they really are. Cincinnati has been a far better team than the Pirates in the second half of the season, posting better numbers in every category.

Minor’s ERA might be ugly, but the quality of contact allowed isn’t a million miles away from his peak years. Wilson, meanwhile, is among the worst starters in the sport.

With home advantage a factor here too, the Reds are rightly favoured, and they are good value at this price. An implied probability of 54.5% is on the low side.