Baseball | Wednesday, May 10, 2023 10:08 AM

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Best Bet: Rodriguez To Lead Tigers To Road Win

IMAGO / ZUMA Wire

Global Sport Expert

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Best Bet: Wednesday, May 10th

The 17-19 Cleveland Guardians are slight favourites over the 16-19 Detroit Tigers in the final game of their midweek series on Wednesday evening. It is one win apiece in this three-game set, with Detroit running out 6-2 victors on Monday and Cleveland edging out a low-scoring game on Tuesday night.

In what looks set to be a tight division, these series are all the more important after the schedule changes. They don’t play each other again until a four-game contest in the middle of August.

Detroit has quietly gone on a run, winning six of their last eight. Cleveland has slowed up a bit after a 10-9 start, going only 7-10 over their last 17 games. They have lost series to the Marlins, Red Sox and Rockies.

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Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Preview

Wed, May 10. 18:10 (UK time)

Wednesday sees Peyton Battenfield face Eduardo Rodriguez. These two pitchers faced off earlier in the season, with Rodriguez shutting the Guardians for eight innings on his way to the win. Battenfield allowed only one earned run in six frames, but was tabbed with the loss. He has struggled since then, giving up nine earned runs in 13.2 innings.

Rodriguez is in the form of his life. A 1.81 ERA might sound unsustainable, but his expected mark of 2.70 is almost as impressive, and represents a career-best. Those statistics are even more remarkable when you consider Rodriguez gave up seven earned runs in his first two starts. Over his last four starts, he has conceded one run in 23.2 innings, including an eight-inning gem against the New York Mets last time out.

Detroit’s offence might still be one of the worst in the league by quality of contact, but it’s important to note that Cleveland isn’t much better according to their xwOBA. Cleveland also owns the fourth-lowest team wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, which doesn’t bode well when matching up with a southpaw like Rodriguez.

Both teams have had some issues with their bullpens early in 2023. They each rank just below league average by reliever ERA on the season. The back-end guys are there for both teams to convert a good start into a win, however, with Alex Lange and Jason Foley having good years for the Tigers.