baseball | Friday, September 2, 2022 10:44 AM

Cleveland Guardians Vs Seattle Mariners Moneyline Best Bet: Castillo Leads Mariners To Fifth Consecutive Win

Sam Cox

Cleveland Guardians Vs Seattle Mariners Moneyline Best Bet: Friday, September 2nd

The Seattle Mariners begin a three-game series in Ohio against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday night. Seattle has won four in a row and dispatched the Detroit Tigers 7-0 on Thursday evening. Cleveland has lost three of its last four, but is still clinging on to the top spot in the American League Central.

Despite the Mariners being left to focus on the wildcard race, they actually have a better record than the division-leading Guardians. The road team are 73-58, compared to Cleveland’s 68-61.

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Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Preview
Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Best Bet

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Preview

Sat, Sep 3. 00:10 (UK time)

Trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo is on the hill for the Mariners. Castillo has been sensational this year, pitching to a 2.85 ERA on the season with an expected mark just above three. Seattle has lost his last two starts, but the Mariners can have no complaints about his production given his 2.84 ERA in August, including six innings of one-run ball when he faced the Guardians in his previous start.

It is one of the quirks of the schedule that these teams face each other twice in such quick succession. A limited amount can be taken from the Mariners winning that series by three games to one, but Castillo’s performance indicates he should be in for another strong performance on Friday night.

Cleveland’s Friday starter, Zach Plesac, also pitched in that game. Seven innings for three earned runs represented a decent showing from the right hander, but he is not in the same class as Castillo.

Not only did Plesac pitch a 4.70 ERA in August and a 4.39 mark for the season, but he is also sporting an xERA of 5.30. The numbers across the board are ugly – Plesac is in the fourth percentile in xSLG and 23rd percentile in whiff rate.

Simply put, he is not missing many bats, and when hitters make contact, it is often loud. He is down in the 11th percentile in barrel rate.
These line ups are well-matched, with Seattle owning a 98 wRC+ to Cleveland’s 91 since All-Star. Both teams rely on pitching and elite bullpens.

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Best Bet

Cleveland leads the Majors in relief ERA in the second half. Seattle is fourth in that category.

Getting Castillo out the game early is the Guardians’ best chance. Yet, even then, it will not be easy against this Mariners bullpen. There is also a risk that Plesac loses them the game in the early innings – he has four starts with four or more earned runs since the beginning of July.

It’s difficult to understand why the Mariners are such narrow favourites. They are a great road team, and it’s not like Cleveland is unbeatable at home. With Castillo on the mound, this is good value on Seattle to record another win on Friday night.