baseball | Wednesday, August 24, 2022 10:14 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, August 24, 2022 10:15 AM)

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Moneyline Best Bet: Perez Dominates Rockies in Colorado

Sam Cox

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, August 24th

A late-game rally earned the Colorado Rockies a 7-6 win over the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. The teams are back at it at Coors Field on Wednesday for the final of this two-game set, with the Rangers narrowly favoured to take the split. Texas has gone 5-4 since the curious decision to fire Chris Woodward, leaving them 56-67, three games ahead of the Rockies in the loss column.

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Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Preview
Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Best Bet

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Preview

Wed, Aug 24. 20:10 (UK time)

Martin Perez takes the ball for Texas. Perez was an All-Star and owns a 2.80 ERA. He has dropped off a bit of late, with a 4.30 ERA this month, but the left hander continues to prevent soft contact and ranks well above league average in xERA with a 3.32 mark. His numbers of late have been inflated by a nightmare start against Houston – it’s just three earned runs allowed over 12 innings in his last two outings.

Not only has Perez flirted with being elite this season, but he’s an especially tough matchup for a Rockies line up with a 90 wRC+ against left handers since the start of July. Colorado is dead-last in walk rate over that period.

Right hander Jose Urena is on the hill for the home team. Urena has started nine games for the Rockies with a FIP of 5.51, and his xERA for the year is at 5.32. While his traditional numbers are not exactly impressive with a lot of walks and few strikeouts, the underlying statistics are even uglier. He’s in the second percentile in whiff rate and the eighth percentile in expected batting average. Texas is only league average against righties over the last couple of months, but they can take great confidence into this one.

It isn’t close when we compare the starting pitchers. Perez is miles ahead of Urena. Pitchers don’t often go deep into games at Coors Field, so the bullpens have a part to play. That, again, is not in Colorado’s favour. They are 29th in bullpen xFIP since June 24th. Texas is middle of the pack. Only the Pirates and Red Sox have a worse relief ERA than the Rockies over that period.

Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers Best Bet

The Rockies’ 36-31 record at home is the only argument in their favour for Wednesday’s game. Colorado has a Pythagorean win-loss of 52-72, while the Rangers are at 62-61 by the same metric. Texas has been solid enough on the road with a 29-33 record, and they have enough fire power in their line up to put up a few runs against Urena.

Perez can keep this Rockies line up quiet enough to set up the Rangers for a win.