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baseball | Wednesday, September 28, 2022 9:46 AM

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline Best Bet: Verlander Continues to Dominate

Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline Best Bet: Verlander Continues to Dominate
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Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, September 28th

The Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks play the second of their two-game series on Wednesday night. Houston moved to 102 wins on the season on Tuesday, while Arizona’s September slump continued. After impressing in August, the Dbacks have slipped to an ugly 10-16 record through September, and hopes of finishing at .500 have vanished.

Zac Gallen gets the ball on Wednesday, which is usually the Diamondbacks’ best shot at a win, as they are 18-11 in his starts. They have their work cut out against the perennially contending Astros, however, who are sending Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander to the mound.

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Gallen has coughed up six earned runs in his last three starts after a remarkable run of six consecutive starts without allowing a run. His 2.46 ERA and xERA just over three are still impressive marks, yet pitching against this Astros offence is a test unlike most others in the Majors. Houston is sixth in the big leagues with a 112 wRC+ since the beginning of last month, and put up 10 runs in their win on Tuesday evening.

In drastic contrast, the Diamondbacks have put up a mere 16 runs in five games. They are 23rd by wRC+ over that same period. Switch that time frame to September, and only the lowly Reds and Rockies have a worse mark. Arizona’s offence has been ineffective for several weeks now. Wednesday sees them face one of the game’s greatest pitchers in Verlander, who is in pursuit of yet another Cy Young award.

Verlander has a 1.82 ERA and a 2.74 expected mark. Either side of his short injured list stint, the former Tiger has allowed just two runs in four starts. Houston has lost just three of Verlander’s starts since June 24th. While the strikeout rate isn’t as high as his early Houston years, he is posting a career-best walk rate, and forcing a lot of weak contact. His groundball rate is the highest it has been in the Statcast era. Just three teams have made more soft contact than the Diamondbacks in September.


Houston Astros vs Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet

With 31 games separating these teams in the loss column, it isn’t the spiciest of takes to describe this game as a complete and utter mismatch. Often, Gallen’s start would close that gap, but when it’s Verlander’s turn on the mound, Houston even has a major advantage in the starting pitching department.

It’s all Houston once the starters come out, too. They have the lowest xFIP from the bullpen this month. Arizona has the highest. There is an upside for the Dbacks where Gallen dominates into the eighth or ninth and they snatch a win. That is very unlikely against this Astros offence, though. The 61.7% implied probability on a home win is way too low.

  • Selection: Houston Astros Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.62 (Boyle Sports)
  • Stakes: 9/10

Odds as at 11:30 am on September 28th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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