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baseball | Wednesday, May 31, 2023 10:16 AM

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Bet Builder Tips: 2.15 Wager For Wednesday Night

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Bet Builder Tips: 2.15 Wager For Wednesday Night
Sam Cox
Sam Cox
1

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Bet Builder Tips: Wednesday, May 31st

The Minnesota Twins and Houston Series play the final game of their midweek series on Wednesday night. It is a win apiece thus far, with Minnesota running out 7-5 victors on Monday and Houston claiming a 5-1 win on the back of a strong start from Brandon Bielak on Tuesday. The Astros are on a 15-4 run, keeping the pressure on the Texas Rangers in the American League West.

While the Twins are top of their division, they are only just above .500. They are 4-7 over their previous 11 games, and have gone just 13-17 against teams with more wins than losses.

Rookie ace Hunter Brown gets the ball for the Astros, matching up with Louie Varland.

In this article:


Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Preview

Thu, Jun 01. 01:10 (UK time)

Second-year pitcher Varland has an ERA in the low-fours, but his expected number is over five. He’s a command guy but has poor metrics when hitters make contact with a below-average hard-hit rate.

Houston is a low-walk, low-strikeout offence. They are only hovering around league average on the season, but they have scored five or more in five consecutive games. The defending champions have held the lead after five innings in four of those contests.

The Astros have gone 7-3 in Brown’s starts, including wins in his previous three outings. He has conceded just six earned runs over that span, striking out eight, nine and 10. A 3.12 ERA might be a bit lower than his xERA, but there are some still great underlying metrics there, and he’s clearly trending in the right direction.

Minnesota has struck out almost 28% of the time in May, a pattern which has been consistent throughout this season. They have been struck out 11 or more times in nine consecutive games. Owners of the lowest contact rate in the Majors and with the highest swinging strike percentage, the Twins are an ideal opponent for Brown to boost his strikeout tally.

Having cruised past this number in his last three appearances, we feel confident taking Brown on this alternate line.


Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Bet Builder

The other leg of this bet builder is the Astros moneyline after five innings. On the road, only two teams score fewer runs in the first five innings than the Twins. Houston’s offence has been getting to starting pitchers of late and should be able to put up a couple of runs against Varland.

Brown, meanwhile, should be able to keep the Twins under relative control.

Houston is 26-16-11 on the moneyline over the first five innings, while the Twins have been abysmal in this market on the road.

There’s great value here at a price of 2.15. This is a pitching matchup which massively favours the home team, and we can take advantage of Minnesota’s swing-and-miss by backing Brown to rack up a few more Ks.  

  • Houston Astros moneyline after five innings
  • Hunter Brown 6+ strikeouts

Bet Builder Odds: 2.15 

Odds as at 12:00 pm on May 31st, 2023. Odds may now differ.


More Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins Tips


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