baseball | Monday, August 22, 2022 11:22 AM

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Moneyline Best Bet: Kopech Outduels Lynch

Sam Cox

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, August 22nd

The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox for a one-off game on Monday night at Kauffman Stadium. With Michael Kopech getting the ball, the White Sox are betting favourites, but only narrowly so. The rebuilding Royals are 15 games behind the White Sox in the loss column ahead of this contest between third and fourth in the American League Central.

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Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Preview
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Best Bet

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Preview

Mon, Aug 22. 19:10 (UK time)

Left-hander Daniel Lynch is on the hill for Kansas City. He’s enjoying his best run of the season, with a sub-three ERA in August. Lynch threw 5.1 shutout frames against Chicago earlier this month, yet his underlying numbers still remain underwhelming at best. The southpaw is below average in walk and strikeout rate, and ranks among the worst pitchers in the league when it comes to allowing hard contact.

This White Sox offence is in the top 10 in strikeout rate since the start of June, and ranks ninth by wRC+ over that span. While Chicago’s offence hasn’t exactly been explosive of late (19 runs scored over the last six games), Lynch’s pitch-to-contact approach could help them to get going on Monday evening.

Kopech has an easier task, facing a Royals line up which is bottom 10 in the Majors by wRC+ since the start of June. His biggest weakness is allowing walks (eighth percentile in walk rate), but the Royals don’t force starters to throw a lot of pitches. The power-throwing righty pitched seven innings for just two earned runs and one walk when he faced Kansas City a few weeks ago.

Once Kopech and Lynch leave the game, the advantage is again in Chicago’s favour. Bullpens are often a weak point for rebuilders, and the Royals aren’t an exception. They are 27th in xFIP from their ‘pen since the start of July. The ChiSox are eighth.

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox Best Bet

The White Sox might only be 7-8 against the Royals this year, but that is just part of the story. They are 16-13 since the All-Star break, and 11-9 in August. While they might not be a serious World Series contender, they have played more like a playoff team over the last six weeks.

The Royals are in a rut. Lynch’s strong ERA of late is a bit deceptive, and even if he pitches well, there’s no guarantee the bullpen will be able to hold against a White Sox offence which has found its groove lately.

With Kopech on the mound, this is good value on Chicago to take the win in Monday’s early start.