Baseball | Monday, April 17, 2023 10:58 AM (Revised at: Monday, April 17, 2023 11:09 AM)

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Best Bet: DeGrom To Give Rangers Early Lead

Global Sport Expert

Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Best Bet: Monday, April 17th

The 9-6 Texas Rangers are road favourites against the 4-12 Kansas City Royals on Monday night. Texas begins the week atop the highly competitive American League West, while the Royals have already fallen off the pace in the American League Central and are heading for another subpar season.

The Rangers won two of three against the Houston Astros at the weekend, with the offence coming alive in the two wins. The Royals were swept by the Braves, scoring just 10 runs over the three games and conceding 24.

On the young season, only two teams have a worse run differential than Kansas City. Texas is fifth by that metric ahead of powerhouse teams like the Dodgers and Mets. In the early going, the Rangers’ blockbuster offseason is paying dividends.

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Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers Preview

Tue, Apr 18. 00:10 (UK time)

The highest profile of those acquisitions was Jacob deGrom. The veteran right-hander gets the ball on Monday night at Kauffman Stadium and matches up with Jordan Lyles. Lyles, a journeyman soft thrower, has been an innings eater throughout his career but has been no more than a workhorse. He has a career 83 ERA+ and has an ERA north of five this season, which is matched by an equally ugly xERA.

DeGrom, on the other hand, is still one of the greatest pitchers in the sport when healthy. The former Met has struck out 27 in 16.2 innings this season. An ERA in the fours is a little misleading too, as his expected mark is just 2.22. The quality of contact allowed is very similar to his peak levels, and his walk rate is elite. All those missed starts through injury don’t seem to have weakened deGrom’s powers.

The Royals line up is dead last in wRC+, has the third-highest strikeout rate, and sits 21st in xwOBA. Sure, they did damage against Nathan Eovaldi in the final game of the series between these teams last week, but they did not get to Atlanta’s starters over the weekend. Prior to Eovaldi’s implosion, the Royals were shut down by Andrew Heaney and deGrom.
Kansas City has trailed after five innings in four of their last six games, including when they faced deGrom. Only the Marlins score fewer runs in the first five innings.

Texas’ offence is not exactly crushing pitchers, with a similar xwOBA to the Royals and a 97 wRC+. They don’t need to do anything spectacular against Lyles, though, who gave up four earned in 6.1 frames when he faced this offence last week. He allowed eight hits and walked two.