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baseball | Wednesday, September 14, 2022 11:10 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, September 14, 2022 11:34 AM)

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline Best Bet: Phils Offence Gets To Cabrera

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline Best Bet: Phils Offence Gets To Cabrera
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Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, September 14th

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies play game two of their three-game series on Wednesday night. Philadelphia took the win in the series opener despite another gem from Sandy Alcantara, extending their season advantage over the Marlins. The Phils have an 11-6 record in the season series, and the Marlins are one of the few teams to be worse at home than on the road.

Miami is just 15-36 in the second half and is missing Jazz Chisholm, Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler. Philadelphia is 30-19 since All-Star, continuing their push for a wildcard berth.

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Wed, Sep 14. 23:40 (UK time)

Veteran Kyle Gibson is on the hill for the Phils. Gibson has endured a brutal start to September, coughing up 11 earned runs in just 6.2 frames. That includes four earned to the Marlins in his previous appearance. He has had these blips throughout the year, but Gibson has mixed in periods of near dominance, including posting a 2.30 ERA in August.

He goes up against a pitcher at the opposite end of his career in Edward Cabrera. The youngster has come back down to earth after an historically good start to his 2022 Major League season, allowing 10 earned runs over his last three starts. Walks have blighted the 24-year-old so far – he’s in the sixth percentile by base on balls rate this season.

Depending on the sample size you pick out and the metrics you prioritise, an argument can be made for either pitcher having a slight advantage here. Cabrera has the better underlying numbers, though, and the superior stuff which could power a strong performance.

The line ups they are facing couldn’t be much more different, however. Philadelphia is second in wRC+ over the last month. Miami is dead last. Only two teams have made soft contact more frequently than the Marlins over that period, while the Phillies are up in eighth in hard-hit rate.

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet

Both bullpens are below average by xFIP and ERA. Even if Miami had the relief arms to provide guaranteed backup to Cabrera, though, it is unlikely to be enough with an offence producing so little. Their 140 runs scored over the last two months is the fewest in the Majors by 37. The Phillies have scored 248 over that spell.

Philadelphia is worse on the road than at Citizen’s Bank Park. Cabrera has been almost unhittable at points this season. Despite those factors, the Phillies are deserving favourites for game two of this series. Gibson can at least keep them in the game, and Philadelphia’s offence should have no problem outscoring the eerily quiet Marlins.

  • Selection: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.77 (Betfred)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds correct as of 12:15 on September 14th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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