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baseball | Tuesday, August 16, 2022 8:58 AM

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Moneyline Best Bet: Carbera Dominates Quiet Padres Offence

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Moneyline Best Bet: Carbera Dominates Quiet Padres Offence
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Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday, August 16th

The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres for the second game of a three-game series on Tuesday night. Miami has the lead after a masterpiece from Sandy Alcantara on Monday, and sends Edward Cabrera to the hill for game two. The Padres are just 11-11 since July 23rd. Miami has struggled of late too, which contributes to the hosts being considerable underdogs for this game.

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Tue, Aug 16. 23:40 (UK time)

Cabrera takes on veteran southpaw Sean Manaea. The former Athletic is having the worst year of his career, with an ERA of 4.76. His expected number is just above four, but there’s no question Manaea has struggled this season with a lot of hard contact allowed and a low whiff rate. Both his fastball (which has lost a bit of velocity) and slider have been attacked by hitters in 2022.

It’s a very different story for Cabrera. The 24-year-old hasn’t given up a run in two August starts. He has only made five starts on the season, and he’s given up a grand total of one run in four of those. The five-run outing against Houston in July has proven to be an aberration for one of the best young pitchers on the planet.

The walk rate is higher than you would like, but Cabrera’s combination of a power change and a mid-to-high nineties fastball is tough for hitters to deal with. Throw in the odd slider and curveball, and he excels at keeping opponents off balance.

Of course, those walk issues could be amplified against the Padres with Juan Soto. San Diego is seventh in walk rate since the start of July. This offence is only middle of the pack over that period, however, and they have scored three of fewer runs in eight of their last 11.

The Marlins’ offence isn’t exactly potent either, currently riding an historic streak of scoring three or fewer. With Cabrera on the mound, though, that might be all they need to secure a series win on Tuesday night. This is a good time to face Manaea – his ERA is 11 over two August starts after posting a 5.40 ERA in July.


Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Best Bet

There isn’t much to choose between the respective bullpens over the last six weeks by xFIP. Sure, the Padres offence is superior on paper, but they have blown hot and cold since the All-Star break, and Cabrera has shown he can shut down a line up.

This matchup is far closer than these odds suggest with Cabrera pitching considerably better than Manaea of late. We’re taking Miami to win here on the back of their young star.

  • Selection: Miami Marlins to Win (OT Incl)
  • Best Odds: 2.41 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 11:00 am on August 16th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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