baseball | Thursday, July 21, 2022 11:48 AM (Revised at: Thursday, July 21, 2022 1:33 PM)

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Moneyline Best Bet: Rangers' Offence to Get Them Over the Top

Sam Cox

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Best Bet: Thursday, July 21st

The Miami Marlins kick off the second half of the 2022 season against the Texas Rangers on Thursday evening. Texas went 2-6 before the break, while the Marlins suffered a series sweep at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies. Both teams are closer to being sellers than buyers as the trade deadline nears.

In this article:

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Preview
Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Best Bet

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Preview

Thu, Jul 21. 18:10 (UK time)

Each game takes on additional importance at this time of year. A few wins can reignite playoff hopes. A losing run can force a front office to flip MLB pieces for prospects.

The start of the second half is similar to Opening Day, with aces matching up across the big leagues. Miami is no exception on Thursday with Pablo Lopez taking on Jon Gray at LoanDepot Park.

Lopez has the better raw numbers of the pair, pitching 104 innings at an ERA of 2.86. Gray has thrown only 89.2 frames at a 3.71 ERA. There is far more to this matchup than those figures indicate, however.

Gray has the edge on Lopez when it comes to his expected numbers, with an xERA almost 20 points lower than his actual number. Lopez, meanwhile, is around league average with a 3.83 xERA. The Marlins’ right-hander is also striking out fewer than Gray, while ranking down in the 27th percentile in barrel rate.

The second half is something of a fresh start, so it’s hard to know how much we can read into pre-All-Star performances. Either way, it’s worth noting that Gray has pitched to a 3.00 ERA this month, while Lopez is down at 2.20.

These are two good, not great, starting pitchers. Texas has the edge with the arms set to come after Gray, though, with the Rangers ranking 13th in wins above average from their bullpen. The Marlins are down in 20th. Both relief corps are middling in xFIP since the start of June. The Rangers’ back-end guys give us a little more confidence, however, even with Joe Barlow currently on the injured list.

The offences are an interesting comparison. Texas is the better all-round group on the season, but the vast majority of that gap is from their production against lefties. They are one of the best lineups in the league when facing southpaws, but they are a shade below league-average against right-handers since the start of May. The Rangers have a 98 wRC+ compared with Miami’s 99.

Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers Best Bet

There’s not a great deal to choose between these teams, as the betting markets suggest. Gray and Lopez are pretty much neck-and-neck on their season-long performances, and both are trending in the right direction.

It’s a case of having slightly more faith in the Rangers’ bullpen and offence which has us backing the road team here.