baseball | Wednesday, July 5, 2023 8:50 AM

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet: Set For Low-Scoring Game Between Subpar Offences

Sam Cox

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet: Wednesday, July 5th

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers play the second of their four-game series on Wednesday night. Milwaukee was 8-6 victors on Tuesday night with Kyle Hendricks taking on Wade Miley. The Cubs are now 1-3 against the Brewers for the season, with Milwaukee in a tight race for the National League Central lead as the All-Star break nears.

The Brewers have considerably overachieved their Pythagorean win-loss record, which paints them as a below .500 ballclub. It is the opposite for the Cubs, who have scored more runs than they have conceded, but they are languishing below .500 and look set to be sellers at the deadline.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Preview

Thu, Jul 07. 01:10 (UK time)

Justin Steele and Adrian Houser are taking the hill on Wednesday. Steele is a fringe Cy Young contender, boasting a 2.43 ERA and a 3.01 xERA. Houser is a low-strikeout, pitch-to-contact arm – he’s in the high threes for his ERA and low fours for his xERA. With this matchup, it’s no surprise the Cubs are marginally favoured for this one despite having six more losses than the Brewers on the season.

Houser returned to the rotation for his last appearance, allowing two earned runs over six frames against the Mets. Steele has pitched successive gems either side of the Atlantic, conceding one earned run over 12.1 innings.

While neither are big names, Steele is pitching at an elite level this season. Houser is having a solid year, even if there is some downside with his lack of swing-and-miss stuff. They will then both be backed up by excellent bullpens – the Cubs are fourth in reliever ERA since the start of last month. Milwaukee is just outside the top 10 over that period.

Both relief corps are in the top 10 at leaving runners on base since 1st June, too, which suggests they can limit the damage if Steele or Houser get into trouble.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet

On the offensive side, these lineups are in the bottom 10 since the start of June. Chicago is at 89 wRC+. Milwaukee is 85 wRC+. Both have increased their production over the last few days, but we are backing the longer-term trend here given the pitching matchup.

Over 53% of Milwaukee’s games in 2023 have hit the under. Chicago has seen the under hit more often than not in their road games.

This line moved from nine down to 8.5 this morning. We are still happy to hit the under at 8.5, particularly with odds of 2.00 at Bet365.