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baseball | Monday, July 25, 2022 1:35 PM (Revised at: Monday, July 25, 2022 1:51 PM)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Moneyline Best Bet: Brewers to Complete the Sweep

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Moneyline Best Bet: Brewers to Complete the Sweep
Contributor: UPI / Alamy Stock Photo

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, July 25th

The Milwaukee Brewers are going for a four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies in Wisconsin on Monday night. Milwaukee has won its first three out of the break, outscoring the Rockies 25-18 in the process.

Colorado has continued its tradition of being a woeful road team. They have won just 15 of their 45 games away from Coors Field, including an ongoing run of 4-12 on the road.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Preview

Tue, Jul 26. 01:10 (UK time)

The Brewers have lost 10 fewer games than the Rockies in 2022. Two of the three wins in this series have been of the one-run variety, but there’s clearly a chasm between the two ballclubs.
A pair of left-handers are taking the bump on Monday with Aaron Ashby of the Brewers matching up with Kyle Freeland of the Rockies. Freeland’s ERA is a shade below five, but Ashby’s isn’t much better at over 4.50. Still, the overall performance of the two pitchers paints a very different picture.

Ashby has an expected ERA of just 3.44. He’s above average by most advanced statistics, with walks being his main issue. The former fourth-round pick has a dominant arsenal of off-speed pitches and is up in the 89th percentile in hard-hit rate. The Rockies have a team wRC+ of 94 against lefties on the road this season.

Milwaukee’s offence is clearly their weakness, and they have an 89 wRC+ at home against southpaws. There have been positive signs in this series to date, however, with nine runs scored on Saturday and 10 on Sunday.

Freeland has a putrid 8.44 ERA in July. He has allowed 10 earned runs in 12 frames across his last two starts on the road, and has been really struggling to stop hitters from making loud contact.

A soft tosser with subpar stuff, Freeland needs to force a lot of groundballs, and he’s got the lowest groundball rate of his career. Milwaukee does a good job of lifting the ball – only eight teams hit flyballs more frequently. Only six ballclubs have a higher hard-hit rate than the Brew Crew.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies Best Bet

Both bullpens have leaked runs in this series, leading to some late-game drama. Hiccups from the relief corps add some variance into this encounter, particularly with Ashby only expected to pitch a few innings.

Even so, Milwaukee’s considerable advantage in the starting department makes them a good bet. Their bullpen is stronger on paper, and there’s not a great deal to choose between these two offences.

With how Freeland has pitched this month, there’s no way to have any confidence in him to even keep the Rockies in this one. The 2.05 price is great value here.

  • Selection: Milwaukee Brewers to Win (OT Incl)
  • Best Odds: 1.53 (William Hill)
  • Stakes: 8/10

Odds as of 11:00 pm July 25th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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