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baseball | Monday, September 19, 2022 12:17 PM (Revised at: Monday, September 19, 2022 12:18 PM)

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Moneyline Best Bet: Scherzer Gets the Better of Burnes

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Moneyline Best Bet: Scherzer Gets the Better of Burnes
Contributor: UPI / Alamy Stock Photo

Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, September 19th

The New York Mets begin a three-game series in Milwaukee against the Brewers on Monday night. New York is in the midst of a ferocious National League East race, while the Brewers are 78-68 and have fallen eight games behind the Cardinals in the Central. Milwaukee is in a scrap for the wildcard spots, and has gone just 28-24 in the second half.

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Tue, Sep 20: 00:40 (UK time)

Monday’s series opener is the pinnacle of September baseball. Pitching matchups don’t get much better than Max Scherzer against Corbin Burnes. There is almost nothing to choose between the two arms, with Scherzer at a 2.97 xERA for the year compared to Burnes’ 3.11. The former has slightly better command and has given up barrels slightly less frequently, but they have also both endured some subpar starts over the last few weeks. Scherzer had consecutive starts with four earned runs. Burnes allowed 14 to the Diamondbacks, Pirates and Dodgers over a three-game span at the end of August and beginning of September.

Statistically, it is a toss up between the starters. They are both elite. Both have delivered when the pressure cranks up. It would be reasonable to come down on Scherzer’s side, though, given his lengthy track record of elevating his performance when it matters most, and a grand total of two runs allowed over 12 innings in his previous two outings.

They each have the stuff and durability to go deep into this one. Burnes is a greater risk to leave before the sixth due to command issues at times, but he’s walked just one hitter over his last two starts.

If the bullpens do have to play a considerable role, it is almost a dead heat. Milwaukee is only a shade behind the Mets by xFIP since the start of August. New York has a slight ERA advantage, yet Edwin Diaz is perhaps the most important factor here. This is a game where the Mets can quite feasibly use two, or maybe three, pitchers. Scherzer to Diaz is an imposing prospect.


Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets Best Bet

The offences, however, are what makes the Mets the team to back on Monday night despite the Brewers’ stellar home record. New York is third in wRC+ since the start of last month. They are eighth in walk rate, suggesting they can force Burnes into some deep counts.

Milwaukee is 16th, just below league average, by wRC+ over the same time span. Only four teams have struck out more frequently over that span.

A superior offence and Scherzer on the mound has the Mets as favourites, but only just. The 51.3% implied probability is far too low with that combination – back New York to land a crucial win on Monday night.

  • Selection: New York Mets Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.95 (Betfair)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 02:20 pm on September 19th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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