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baseball | Tuesday, September 27, 2022 8:05 AM

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Run Total Best Bet: The NL Central Decided

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Run Total Best Bet: The NL Central Decided
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Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Run Total Best Bet: Tuesday, September 27th

After taking a knock on the chin to start the week, our resident baseball guru is on a mission to get that unit back with a wager from the match in Milwaukee. The St, Louis Cardinals are looking to secure the NL Central Division title with a 6½ -game lead over the Brewers entering this brief 2-game series.

In this article:


Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview

September 28, 00:40 (UK time)

The Cardinals are on the brink of clinching the NL Central Division title, and a pair of heads-up wins over second-place Milwaukee would essentially seal the deal. The Red Birds have yet to clinch a playoff berth but they would be the 3-seed in the NL playoffs if the season ended today.

Well, the season doesn’t end today, so there’s no point in mentioning that, now is there? All of the other outlets love mentioning those things, so I figured I would mention it too! Stuff like that never made sense to me, because it’s like saying it’s the 4th inning of the game, and if it ended now the team in the lead would win the game.

I am pointing toward this contest’s Milwaukee Brewers team total for a few reasons. First, let me get the nuts and bolts out of the way. Miles Mikolas (11 – 13; 3.35 ERA) is listed as the probable starter for St. Louis (89 – 65) and Adrian Houser (6 – 9; 4.62 ERA) is expected to go for the Brew Crew (82 – 71).

Milwaukee’s team total is being offered at 3.5 with a 1.83 attached to the action, which is fair enough for me to make me think we can cash this ticket early. Through 31 starts this campaign, Mikolas has given up 24 home runs, and the last time he faced Milwaukee back in August he gave up one on that night as well. However, the dude went 8 solid innings and it was about the only mistake he made all night helping the Cards earn a 6 – 3 win.

So, why the fade tonight, Ej? First of all, have you noticed the weird trend between these two teams this year? You win a game, we win a game. You win two games, we win two games. You win, we win, okay, you won the last one, so we’ll win this one tonight! This season’s series has gone back and forth all year.

Secondly, I think another shot at Mikolas will favour the Brew Crew bats right now, because what happened in August, or 2 years ago, or 6 years ago has zero effect on the outcome of this affair today. Milwaukee is coming into this game knowing it’s a must-win on their home field, and I don’t expect them to go away as quickly as they did in Mikolas’ previous start against them.

I noticed a handful of trends that pointed to Milwaukee scoring if you are into those kinds of stats. Milwaukee has hit the over in 7 of their last 9 Tuesday games and the over is 4 – 1 in Milwaukee’s last 5 game-1s of a series. The over was won or pushed in 15 of the last 19 home games against teams with winning records and St, Louis is certainly qualifying as a winning team.

The trick about trends is that you can always find just as many stats that could tell you why the under happens more often than not. St. Louis has a good chunk of under trends to mention but since we are playing a Brewers teams total, who cares, right?

As you all know by now, I don’t really get stuck on trends on stats because I watch so much baseball and I’d rather trust what I see than what I read. Numbers on paper are not as important regarding the how or why something happened, in my opinion. So many conditions factor into each circumstance, from the weather to a different starter every night, to a different lineup each night, and so on.


Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals Best Bet

The line at 1.83 for the Brewers Team Total of Over 3.5 was convincing enough for me to just go with my gut and expect the Brewers to score at home with the division on the line. The pressure is on St. Louis to secure the win on the road, so Milwaukee should be able to just go out and do what they do at home. St. Louis has been seen giving up 5 runs plenty of late, and I surmise that this will be another of those spots.

  • Selection: Brewers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs
  • Best odds: 1.81 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of 9:30 am September 27, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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