baseball | Wednesday, August 31, 2022 9:28 AM

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Moneyline Best Bet: Ryan Outduels Wacha

Sam Cox

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, August 31sth

The Boston Red Sox face the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night in the final game of a three-game set at Target Field. Boston has lost the first two as its season fades, while Minnesota is keeping itself in the hunt for the American League Central crown. The season series is set at 3-3, but the Red Sox are evidently trending in the wrong direction with a putrid 19-34 record since the start of July.

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Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Preview
Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Best Bet

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Preview

Thu, Sep 1. 00:40 (UK time)

Michael Wacha gets the ball for Boston in this one, going up against Joe Ryan of the Twins. Wacha has a 9-1 record with a 2.53 ERA, but those numbers are not an accurate representation of how the veteran has pitched. His xERA is 4.42, well-below league average, and his numbers across the board are not exactly impressive.

While Wacha has always been a pitch-to-contact guy, his low level of whiffs is a real problem at this stage. It is a particular concern when facing a Twins line up which is fourth in xwOBA for the season and ranks in the top 10 in hard hit rate since the beginning of July.

Boston’s offence has been part of their downfall. Over the same period, their team wRC+ is just 93. Ryan might not be the most unhittable pitcher in the big leagues, but he has a 3.25 ERA this month to go with a 3.71 xERA for the season. The Twins’ 13-8 record in his starts and a mid-three ERA isn’t exactly spectacular, and doesn’t compare favourably to Wacha, but it doesn’t take much digging to reveal that Ryan has been the superior pitcher in 2022.

On top of that, it’s important to note the improvement from the Twins’ bullpen after some issues earlier this year. They are fourth in xFIP since July 1st. Boston is down in 24th by that metric. The Red Sox’s bullpen ERA of 5.69 over that period is by far the worst in the Majors.

Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox Best Bet

It was a surprise to see the Twins only priced as narrow favourites here. They are 40-28 at home on the season, and Boston has been one of the worst teams in MLB over the last couple of months. Wacha’s record is misleading, while Ryan has been steady throughout August after some struggles in July.

There is no department the Red Sox can compete with the Twins in. All the Twins need is a bit of run support for Ryan and they should cruise to a series sweep, maintaining the pressure on Cleveland in the sport’s most intriguing division race down the stretch.