MLB Best Bets: Wednesday, April 27th

With games getting underway at 18:15 (UK time), Wednesday night is a marathon of MLB action. We’ve picked out two great value bets from the packed slate starring two talented young arms.

MLB Best Bets Wednesday, April 27th

• Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres: Padres -1.5 at 1.95 (Bet365)
• Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins: Marlins to be leading after five innings at 1.95 (Unibet)

Odds as of 3 pm April 27th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Best Bet

Wed, Apr 27, 23:40 (UK)

Cincinnati has the worst record in the Majors and San Diego won the first game of this series by a three-run margin – the runline is still set at -1.5 on Wednesday night, despite Vladimir Gutierrez taking the mound for the Reds. The Cuban has given up eight earned runs in 13 regular season innings, and he matches up with MacKenzie Gore, who has enjoyed a dominant start to his big league career.

The Reds are dead last in an array of categories, including team wRC+ and xwOBA. It’s not a surprise that this is a losing ballclub after their winter fire sale, and they are completely overmatched against this Padres team.

We saw the same pitching matchup a week ago, and the Friars ran out 6-0 victors on the back of five scoreless frames from Gore. Gutierrez lasted 4.2, striking out only two and walking four. The Padres then got to the Cincy bullpen to cement the win.

San Diego’s offence is fourth in walk rate. Their discipline has already caused Gutierrez troubles once this season, and a similar pattern can be expected on Wednesday night. He not only has lacked control so far, but he doesn’t have the stuff to generate swings and misses when he’s in the zone. Gore should be in for another strong outing – the Reds strikeout more than any other team and sit fifth worst in walk rate.

This is a complete mismatch. The Padres should record another easy win over the lowly Reds – we like them at 20/21 to cover the runline.

• Selection: Padres -1.5
• Best Odds: 1.95 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 9/10

More Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres betting tips

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Best Bet

Thu, Apr 28, 00:05 (UK)

Pablo Lopez is on the bump for Miami in the nation’s capital. Miami’s right-hander has given up just one run this season and has posted 12.1 scoreless over his last two starts, striking out 11 and walking just two over that period. He faces a Washington offence which ranks 26th in wRC+ in 2022.

Washington has lost six on the bounce, including Tuesday’s 5-2 defeat to Miami. Erick Fedde, owner of a career ERA+ of 80, is taking the ball for the Nationals. Fedde is in the 19th percentile in xERA and gave up six earned runs in 3.1 innings to the Diamondbacks in his last start.

Miami’s offence isn’t the most potent in the Majors, but they have done plenty of damage against right handers so far this season. Their 120 wRC+ against righties is good for seventh in the big leagues. They got to Josiah Gray in the first game of this series, owning a 3-1 leading after five innings.

Miami’s success on Tuesday was built on a solid foundation from Sandy Alcantara. A similar performance can be expected from Lopez on Wednesday, and the offence will be able to put some runs on the board off Fedde.

The Marlins have had their bullpen issues this season, so instead of betting them over the full nine, let’s take the relievers out of the equation and look at the first five. It’s a head-to-head bet of Lopez versus Fedde – Miami is great value at 23/25 to have the lead after five frames.

• Selection: Marlins to be leading after five innings
• Best Odds: 1.95 (Unibet)
• Stakes: 8/10

More Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins Best Bet betting tips

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