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All 30 teams are taking the diamond around the Majors on Friday night. The action gets underway in Pittsburgh, with the final game starting out in San Francisco. There are tonnes of wagers to consider on this packed night of baseball.
In this article:
Fri, May 19. 23:35 (UK time)
Zac Gallen against Johan Oviedo is a pitching mismatch. Oviedo has been a little better than his 5.14 ERA suggests, but his expected number is still above four. Gallen is outright dominant, with the Diamondbacks winning seven of his nine starts this season.
Arizona is top-10 in run scoring in the first five innings. Their bullpen has been a bit of a weakness, placing below league average in FIP, but their offence has been getting to starters early on. A young, athletic team which likes to run, they could enjoy some success a Pirates team which allows the joint-fifth most stolen bases per game.
Only six teams have a better wRC+ against righties than the Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh is on a 3-12 run. This seems like a great price on Arizona to take an early lead with Gallen on the hill.
More Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Tips
Sat, May 20. 00:10 (UK time)
Cal Quantrill against Carlos Carrasco is potentially one of the weakest starting pitching matchups of the year. Carrasco has started only three times, but has an ERA beginning with eight and an expected number almost as ugly. New York will hope he can improve considerably on his return from the injured list.
Quantrill’s 3.97 ERA seems fine, yet his xERA is up at 5.31. He isn’t fooling hitters – the strikeout rate has plummeted, and a good amount of hard contact is being made. While a lot has been made of the Mets’ offensive struggles, their xwOBA shows they have been a bit unlucky.
Cleveland’s offence is poor, sitting second to last in wRC+ against righties. They have scored three or more in five of their last six, however, and should have some joy against Carrasco. The Mets have scored three or more in five straight.
More New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Tips
Sat, May 20. 00:20 (UK time)
A pair of young starters with exceptional ERAs meet in Atlanta on Friday night. Bryce Elder has amassed 1.7 bWAR on a sub-two ERA. Bryce Miller, Seattle’s rookie ace, has a 0.47 ERA through three Major League appearances.
Atlanta has an immense offence, with an MLB-best xwOBA, led by MVP frontrunner Ronald Acuna. Seattle is only 13th by xwOBA and has a 98 wRC+ against righties. It makes sense for the Braves to be favoured at home, but there’s value backing Miller to outduel Elder here.
Miller has pitched to a 2.65 xERA with several elite underlying metrics in his three-start sample. Elder has a 4.59 xERA, suggesting he has ridden some luck. He isn’t getting the ball past many hitters, and his hard-hit rate places in just the 10th percentile.
At this price, we really like the Mariners to have a lead after five. Atlanta’s offence is great, but Elder is due a less effective start. Atlanta has also been much better against lefties than righties.
More Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Tips
Acca odds: 7.94
Odds as of 1:00 pm May 19, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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