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baseball | Wednesday, August 10, 2022 10:13 AM

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Alcantara Shuts Down Phils

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Alcantara Shuts Down Phils
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Wednesday, August 10th

The Miami Marlins are in Philadelphia for a three-game series this week. Miami lost the opener on Tuesday, and will look to bounce back on Wednesday night with Cy Young favourite Sandy Alcantara taking the mound. Hit by underperformance and injuries, the Fish are 11 behind the Phils in the loss column, and have won just four of their 10 against Philadelphia in 2022.

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Thu, Aug 11. 00:05 (UK time)

Trade deadline acquisition Noah Syndergaard is on the bump for the Phillies. The former Met has been relatively solid this year, but he’s a long way from the All-Star arm he was during his New York peak. Syndergaard’s first start with the Phils was an ugly one, allowing four earned runs on 11 hits over five frames against the lowly Nationals.

Alcantara, in stark contrast, pitched a complete game against the Reds. His xERA of 2.79 might be a bit higher than his actual number, but it’s still a long way below Syndergaard (4.28 xERA and 4.02 ERA). Over three starts against Philadelphia this summer, Alcantara has allowed six runs across 22 frames. Unlike so many other starters in the modern game, he’s all but a guarantee to pitch into the late innings too. It’s an understatement to say he gives his team a chance to win, but even so, it is remarkable the Marlins have managed to lose eight of his starts.

Miami’s offence is the fifth-worse in the bigs since the start of June, while the Phils are in the top 10. The Marlins have been even less productive since the start of July, sitting dead last in wRC+. This is a team missing several of its best bats, including All-Star Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson, but the remaining hitters should still be able to give them a chance on Wednesday night. It doesn’t need something special with Alcantara – a couple of runs could be enough.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Best Bet

Syndergaard is not going to shutdown this Marlins offence. He’s well below-average when it comes to strikeout rate and expected slugging. He has allowed three or more earned runs in seven starts this year, and he’s pitched beyond the sixth on just four occasions.

Miami is going to get a look at a Phillies bullpen which ranks in the bottom half by ERA since the beginning of July. Philadelphia has a particularly volatile relief corps, which could give this plodding Marlins offence a chance to take a lead late in the game if Syndergaard somehow matches Alcantara in the early innings.

We are always going to find it hard to bet against the Marlins when Alcantara is on the mound. Sure, the line up hasn’t done much, and the Phillies have played some good baseball of late, but this is still a great price on Miami given how dominant Alcantara has been this season.

  • Selection: Miami Marlins to WIn (OT Incl)
  • Best Odds: 2.10 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 11:30 am August 10th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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