baseball | Thursday, September 8, 2022 10:35 AM

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Gibson Does Enough For Philly Win

Sam Cox

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Moneyline Best Bet: Thursday, September 8th

The Miami Marlins, on an eight-game losing streak, face the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night. This is the final contest of a three-game set between the National League East rivals as the Phils continue their fight for a wildcard spot, and the Marlins look to salvage some positives from their season in the final weeks.

Miami, with Cy Young favourite Sandy Alcantara on the mound, is the slight underdog against veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Preview

Thu, Sep 8. 23:45 (UK time)

We have often looked to the Marlins for value in Alcantara’s starts, such is his dominance. On this occasion, though, it is best to look elsewhere. The Marlins are an abysmal 12-32 since the All-Star break, and have gone 5-10 against Philadelphia in 2022. Early season hopes of a wildcard push crumbled months ago, and Miami is left with nothing to play for in September once again.

Alcantara has been exceptional all year, yet even he has dropped off lately, conceding 13 earned runs over his last three starts. His xwOBA has been well below-average across the last 50 plate appearances, and he allowed four runs in 7.2 innings when he faced the Phillies last month. Simply put, Alcantara has shown greater vulnerability since the start of August than he had throughout the first few months of the campaign.

The home run has been a problem for Alcantara in his previous three outings. Of course, this game is being played at a hitter-friendly park, and the Phils make a lot of hard contact (ninth in hard-hit rate over the last month). They have the 11th-best offence in baseball since August 8th according to wRC+.

Miami is the worst offence in the big leagues since the beginning of June. Over just the last month, the Marlins are dead-last in wRC+ and by a considerable margin. They haven’t scored more than three runs in a game since August 26th. While Gibson is no more than a league-average arm in 2022, he doesn’t need to be spectacular to shut down these Marlins.

Gibson has a 4.21 xERA on the year, and has allowed four earned runs across 20 innings in his last three starts against Miami.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Best Bet

Neither bullpen provides much of a guarantee. Both rank below average by xFIP and ERA over the last month. If one offence can take advantage of a misfiring relief corps, though, it is clearly Philadelphia.

The Phils have a 26-18 record in the second half, and have gone 41-30 at home. Miami is always going to have a chance with Alcantara on the mound, yet there is clearly value in backing the home team in this one. The Marlins are having a hard time generating any offence at the moment.