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baseball | Tuesday, September 20, 2022 9:10 AM

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Stripling Gets Jays the Win

Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Stripling Gets Jays the Win
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday, September 20th

The Toronto Blue Jays are in Philadelphia for a two-game series with the Phillies, starting on Tuesday night. Toronto won both games when these ballclubs met earlier this season, and has been on fire in September with a 13-5 record.

Philadelphia has fought hard down the stretch, despite being left in the wake of the Braves and Mets. They have lost their last four games, but will be pleased to return home, where they are 44-31 on the season. The Jays have been a solid team on the road, going 40-32.

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Wed, Sep 21. 00:45 (UK time)

Ross Stripling heads to the mound for Toronto, going up against Kyle Gibson of the Phillies. Stripling has been one of the under-the-radar stories of the season. Gibson has done what Philadelphia needed from a back-end starter for the most part, but a 92 ERA+ and xERA placing in the 29th percentile is nothing to write home about. He allowed just one earned run to the Marlins last time out, though that doesn’t tell us a great deal given Miami’s woeful offence. In his two previous September outings, Gibson coughed up 11 earned runs in 6.2 frames.

Stripling posted a 1.96 ERA in August, followed up with a 2.95 mark in September. He’s in the 67th percentile by xERA, and is walking the fewest hitters of his career. Toronto has gone 14-7 in Stripling’s starts.

It is advantage Toronto in the starting pitching department. The same goes for their offence. The Jays are fourth in wRC+ with a 121 mark since the start of the month. Philly is 11th at 110. The low-strikeout nature of Gibson means he relies on soft contact – the Jays have made soft contact just 15% of the time in September. Only four teams have made more soft contact than the Phillies over that span, which works in Stripling’s favour (he relies on command rather than unhittable stuff).

Gibson nor Stripling are renowned for pitching deep into games. Stripling hasn’t gone past 6.1 innings since mid-July. Gibson has clocked just 36 innings over his last seven starts. As such, the respective bullpens are key here. There isn’t much to choose between them by xFIP this month, yet Philadelphia’s relief corps has allowed an ERA over five, while Toronto is above average.


Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

Aside from homefield advantage, there isn’t much in Philadelphia’s favour here. Stripling is a better pitcher than Gibson in 2022. The offence and bullpen are also a mark in the Jays’ favour.

An implied probability of 54.5% on an away win seems on the low side. This is clearly good value on the Blue Jays to continue their scorching September.

  • Selection: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 1.83 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 11:00 am on September 20th, 2022. Odds may now differ.


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