baseball | Tuesday, June 20, 2023 10:32 AM

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet: Stroman To Extend Cubs Hot Streak

Sam Cox

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet: Tuesday, June 20th

After opening their three-game series with an emphatic 8-0 win on Monday, the Chicago Cubs are remarkably only one game behind the Pittsburgh Pirates in the loss column. Chicago has surged as the hot-starting Pirates have waned. Pittsburgh has now lost six in a row and sits on a 14-28 run since beginning the season 20-9.

Of late, these Pirates have played much like preseason projections expected them to. While the Cubs are still a few games below .500, they have quietly won six of their last seven to keep themselves in the mix in the close-fought National League Central.

Part of the Cubs’ strong run was a three-game sweep over the Pirates. One of those wins saw Marcus Stroman outduel Johan Oviedo. The pair go head-to-head again on Tuesday night.

In this article:

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Preview

Tue, Jun 20. 23:40 (UK time)

Oviedo is a league-average (or just below) starter however you look at it. His ERA and xERA are both in the fours, his command comes and goes, and he doesn’t generate much swing-and-miss from opposing hitters.

Stroman has a sub-three ERA, putting him firmly in the All-Star conversation. While he’s ridden some luck, with an xERA closer to four, the former Met has done an exceptional job at limiting hard contact. His groundball rate is above 60%, which is his best mark since 2018. Only Logan Webb generates more groundballs.

Look for the Pirates to make a lot of soft contact in this game. Just three teams have a lower hard-hit rate than the Pirates since the start of last month, and Stroman thrives off getting hitters to roll over on his trademark sinker-slider combination. He pitched six strong innings against Pittsburgh last time out – a similar performance is to be expected in this one. It’s worth considering Stroman to concede under 2.5 earned runs at 1.85 with William Hill. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in each of his previous six starts.

On the other side of the ball, the Cubs offence has woken up recently. They haven’t been the most productive team at the plate this season, but their line drive rate is solid over the last couple of months, and they are 12th in team xwOBA. In the previous series against the Pirates, they scored 28 runs over three games.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet

Chicago clearly has the advantage in the starting matchup. The story is similar with these bullpens. Pittsburgh has the second-worst relief ERA this month, while the Cubs’ bullpen has been solid, and racked up an absolute tonne of strikeouts in the process.

The Cubs haven’t been great on the road, which must contribute to this price. Even so, these are two teams trending in opposite directions currently, and with Stroman on the mound, we love Chicago’s chances of moving to 5-0 over the Pirates in 2023.