baseball | Thursday, August 25, 2022 9:56 AM

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bet: McKenzie Takes Guardians to Another Win

Sam Cox

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bet: Thursday, August 25th

The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians begin their four-game series at T-Mobile Park on Thursday evening. Seattle is in the thick of the American League Wildcard race, and looks set to end its postseason drought. Cleveland is in a fierce contest in the AL Central, but is actually one game behind the Mariners. On a 14-7 run in August, the Guardians arrive in Seattle full of confidence. The Mariners have lost three of their last four.

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Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Preview
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bet

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Preview

Thu, Aug 25. 21:10 (UK time)

Triston McKenzie, one of the best pitchers in the Majors over the last two months, takes the ball for the Guardians. Marco Gonzales, owner of a 6.23 ERA in August, is on the mound for the home team.

Seattle is just 10-14 in Gonzales’ starts. The soft-tossing southpaw has struggled mightily this year, pitching to an xERA of almost five. The low strikeout marks have been combined with a lot of hard contact, leaving the leftie in the 14th percentile in expected slugging, and he hasn’t been able to keep hitters off balance, with his fastball, cutter and curve all getting crushed.

Cleveland is not a spectacular offensive team by any stretch, but the 106 wRC+ against lefties since the start of June shows they can get to a pitcher like Gonzales. It isn’t going to be an explosion of home runs, yet the Guardians will keep the line moving and likely force him out of the game early on.

In contrast, Seattle has its work cut out against McKenzie. Their 98 wRC+ against righties since the start of June isn’t disastrous, but it’s not exactly exciting either. McKenzie, meanwhile, has been a force of late, including a 14-strikeout performance in his previous appearance. His curveball is troubling hitters, and it’s good for a whiff rate just shy of 50%.

It doesn’t get much easier if the Mariners get McKenzie out of the game either. Cleveland has the best bullpen xFIP over the last three months. Seattle is seventh by the same metric and leads in relief ERA over that period.

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Best Bet

As their almost identical records suggest, these teams are well-matched across the board. It will be a hard-fought series. With similar line ups and elite bullpens, though, it all comes down to which starter can assert themselves.

It is a no-brainer to go with McKenzie over Gonzales here. There is a chasm between them over the last few weeks, and that is enough to overcome Cleveland’s slightly underwhelming record on the road. The Guardians have the bullpen to convert a strong outing from McKenzie into yet another win – they are great value at 2.00.