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baseball | Tuesday, August 9, 2022 10:22 AM

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Moneyline Best Bet: Seattle Bullpen Holds On for Win Against Cole

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Moneyline Best Bet: Seattle Bullpen Holds On for Win Against Cole
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Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday, August 9th

Coming off a four-game split with the Los Angeles Angels, the Seattle Mariners are in a three-game series with the New York Yankees in the Pacific Northwest. New York took the first game of the set with a 9-4 win on Monday. It’s the second series between these teams this month, with Seattle taking two of three just last week.

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Wed, Aug 10. 03:10 (UK time)

Tuesday’s game also brings a repeat of a pitching matchup from that series with Luis Castillo getting the ball against Gerrit Cole. Seattle won 7-3 in the series decider on August 3rd, with Cole being shelled for six runs in the first frame. Castillo, making his first start for the Mariners after arriving from the Reds before the trade deadline, hurled 6.2 strong innings with eight strikeouts along the way.

Cole has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts. While the underlying numbers are generally still very strong, he has allowed a lot of hard contact for a pitcher of his calibre. This has been a slight weakness throughout his career, but it has been particularly apparent of late. The strikeout and walk numbers are still great, yet when hitters make contact, it is often explosive.

Castillo had a sub-two ERA in July prior to the trade. His numbers are a shade behind Cole for the season, but he’s got a clear advantage when it comes to recent results. The sinker-changeup combination off his four-seamer can be effective at keeping the ball on the ground against a powerful Yankees offence.

If it’s a close-run thing between Castillo and Cole, Seattle has an edge in the bullpen department of late. New York’s relief corps is down in 15th in ERA since the start of July; Seattle is third, with the sixth-best strikeout rate over that period.

Both bullpens allowed runs on Monday night, with previously dominant closer Clay Holmes again struggling for the Yankees. New York’s bullpen has quietly been a weakness of late, contributing to a 7-11 run since the All-Star break.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Best Bet

We backed the Orioles’ bullpen to get the job done on Monday against the Rays, and it did just that. Similar logic is at play to take the Mariners on the moneyline at 2.10 on Tuesday. The starters are well-matched, but we’ve got far more confidence in Seattle’s relief arms at the moment, and that could well be where this game is won and lost.

The Mariners own a 25-14 record in one-run games, partly because of the effectiveness of their bullpen. While inconsistent since the break, this is still a playoff-level team, and they can ride their pitching to a series-tying win on Tuesday.

  • Selection: Seattle Mariners Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 2.18 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as of 11:50 am August 9th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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