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baseball | Tuesday, September 13, 2022 9:19 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, September 13, 2022 9:20 AM)

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Moneyline Best Bet: Gilbert Outduels Darvish

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Moneyline Best Bet: Gilbert Outduels Darvish
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Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Moneyline Best Bet: Tuesday, September 13th

The San Diego Padres, losers of two straight to the Los Angeles Dodgers, have made the trip north to face the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night. This two-game set is the penultimate interleague series of the year for the Friars, who have stuttered in the second half with a 25-22 record despite their massive trade deadline moves. They also lost both games to the Mariners earlier this season.

Seattle has been surging since All-Star. A series win over the defending champion Braves took the Mariners to 28-19 in the second half.

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Logan Gilbert gets the ball for the home team here, and Seattle has won each of his last three starts. Gilbert has ridden some luck this year, owning an xERA almost a run higher than his actual number of 3.23, but he has also started September in stellar form with 18 strikeouts and 12 scoreless innings across his two outings.

The San Diego offence is the superior of the two on paper, but they are in for a tough night against Gilbert. The Padres have only been league average across the last month, and making hard contact has been a struggle.

Gilbert is in the fourth percentile in hard-hit rate. San Diego isn’t necessarily well-placed to take advantage of that weakness – only eight teams have made more soft contact over the last month.

Command is going to go a long way to deciding this. Yu Darvish, San Diego’s starter on Tuesday night, is liable to lose the zone. Control is one area where Gilbert generally excels. These teams are the top two in walk rate since August 13th. Seattle doesn’t make an enormous amount of hard contact (Darvish also ranks poorly in barrel rate), but they can make the former Dodger work for his outs.

Neither starter will go that deep into the series opener. The bullpens are going to have a big role to play, and Seattle has the edge in that department with a 2.99 ERA and 4.06 xFIP over the last month compared to San Diego’s marks of 4.13 by both metrics.

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Best Bet

There is high variability with Darvish. He still has dominant starts in him, but there is very real downside. This Seattle offence has the discipline to make him work, meaning he won’t be pitching deep into the late innings.

Gilbert has been fortunate to own a sub-three ERA, yet his performances to start this month lead us to believe he will be able to keep the Padres quiet here. San Diego’s offence might have the names, but they aren’t scaring anyone at the moment.

With home field advantage, it was a real surprise to see the Mariners as underdogs here.

  • Selection: Seattle Mariners Moneyline
  • Best Odds: 2.05 (Boyle Sports)
  • Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 10:00 am September 13, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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