baseball | Ponedeljak, Jul 3, 2023 11:24 AM (Revised at: Ponedeljak, Jul 3, 2023 11:33 AM)

Spencer Strider is the Value Bet for the National League Cy Young

Sam Cox

Runner-up for Rookie of the Year in 2022 and one of the preseason favourites for the 2023 National League Cy Young, Spencer Strider is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. As of 1st July, Strider is heading towards his first All-Star selection, and sits at 9.00 to win the Cy Young with Betway.

Strider has been favoured for the award at points this season. The last few weeks have seen Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen take the lead in the Cy Young race, while the odds of veteran southpaw Clayton Kershaw winning a fourth Cy Young have also tumbled.

In this article:

Strider’s Difficult Few Weeks
Superior Underlying Metrics
Great Price At Halfway Mark

Strider’s Difficult Few Weeks

A 5.46 ERA in June, following a 4.01 mark in May, has seen Strider move from frontrunner to mere contender. He had rough outings against the Tigers and Mets, but the strikeouts tallies have remained exceptional. Strider’s 38.9% strikeout rate is 7.4 percentage points clear of any other National League pitcher to have thrown 60+ innings.

Hitters have made more hard contact against Strider of late, with his home runs allowed ballooning since conceding only two long balls in his first eight starts in 2023.

Superior Underlying Metrics

Strider, however, still has exceptional underlying metrics, which indicate he has been a little unlucky. His xERA is 3.32, compared with his actual ERA of 3.73. Among National League pitchers to have pitched over 300 plate appearances, only Justin Steele and Mitch Keller have a better xwOBA allowed.

Of the Cy Young frontrunners, Strider’s advanced metrics are the strongest (as of 1st July).

Gallen has a 3.80 xERA. Kershaw’s is 3.44. Marcus Stroman is at 3.80, Logan Webb’s is 3.64 and Zack Wheeler matches Strider at 3.32.

	xERA	K%	Hard hit%	BB%	Barrel%
Spencer Strider	3.32	38.90%	37.80%	8.50%	10.40%
Zac Gallen	3.8	25.70%	44.60%	5.20%	8.70%
Clayton Kershaw	3.44	27.70%	36.70%	6.30%	7.70%
Marcus Stroman	3.8	20.80%	40.40%	8.60%	3.50%
Logan Webb	3.64	24%	45.70%	4.80%	8.40%
Zack Wheeler	3.32	26.80%	36.40%	5.60%	5.40%

Sure, these are only small differences, which can change within a couple of starts, but Strider has been pitching considerably better than his results thus far, while many of his peers are due for some regression.

Strider can live with the relatively high walk rate given his sky-high strikeout rate. He’s closer to the pitcher from the first six weeks of the season than the one we have seen over the previous month-and-a-half. The 98th percentile whiff rate and 94th percentile chase rate are unlikely to drop off.

Great Price At Halfway Mark

The two other frontrunners have greater downside than Strider.

Durability is a concern for Kershaw, who has not made more than 28 starts in a season since 2018. Gallen’s underlying metrics suggest he will not keep this current pace up for a full season.
Strider could go deeper into games, but he’s still above the 90-inning mark at the halfway point and has amassed 2.2 fWAR. He’s set up for a strong second half, which could see his Cy Young odds shorten dramatically.

Gallen might have an edge over Strider in fWAR (as does Wheeler), but Strider at 9.00 is much better value at this point than Gallen at 3.00 or Kershaw at 4.00.