baseball | Monday, July 3, 2023 11:13 AM

Three Contenders Who Could Improve their MLB World Series Odds at the Trade Deadline

Sam Cox

MLB’s Playoff changes have had the desired impact. More teams are in contention as the trade deadline nears, leaving fewer franchises in full sell mode. Competing teams are left with little to choose from as they look to improve their Major League rosters down the stretch.

Here are three teams who could drastically improve their World Series odds at the deadline…

In this article:

Miami Marlins Trade Options
LA Angels Trade Options
Texas Rangers Trade Options

Miami Marlins Trade Options

Longest current World Series odds: 61.00 (Unibet)

The Marlins are outplaying the Phillies and Mets so far. Miami has done so with Sandy Alcantara struggling and Jazz Chisholm missing a chunk of time. Luis Arraez is doing a Ted Williams impression, while Eury Perez looks like one of the sport’s best pitchers.

Lingering 23rd in xwOBA, there are signs that this first half isn’t sustainable. The offence lacks firepower – just three teams walk less frequently and only four have a lower isolated power. Perez, too, will see his workload managed in the second half.

The bullpen is fine. Skip Schumaker has several good options. As has been the case for several years, the Marlins have a pitching surplus and a subpar offence. It makes sense to do another version of the Pablo Lopez for Arraez trade.

Max Meyer, Dax Fulton, Jake Eder and Jacob Miller could all be used as the centrepiece of trades for a bat despite a combination of injuries and poor 2023 performance.

Trading for an outfielder makes the most sense with Jean Segura under contract through 2024. Brendan Donovan or Dylan Carlson are potential targets if the Cardinals retool. Alex Verdugo could be an option if Boston accepts their fate in the ultra-competitive American League East.

Los Angeles Angels Trade Options

Longest current World Series odds: 51.00 (Live Score Bet)

The Angels almost certainly aren’t trading Shohei Ohtani, even with just a 22.3% chance of making the Playoffs on 30th June. This is their last chance to go for it before Ohtani hits free agency – it’s now or never for Perry Minasian.

The offence is elite, powered by a ridiculous hitting season from Ohtani, who would be on course for MVP as a hitter alone. They hang around league average in xwOBA allowed, however, and could do with another rotation arm or two behind Ohtani and Reid Detmers.

Yes, this is a familiar tale with the Angels. It’s no surprise that the rotation is an issue, but the urgency is different this season with the effectiveness of the offence and Ohtani’s free agency looming. They are also top-10 in bullpen ERA (albeit with some metrics indicating regression is on its way).

It’s a bad summer to be after starting pitching. The Angels should still be aggressive, however, and there are arms out there who could improve their World Series chances, including James Paxton, Marcus Stroman and Lucas Giolito.

Texas Rangers Trade Options

Longest current World Series odds: 9.50 (Paddy Power)

With a commanding lead atop the American League West and a 96% chance of making the postseason according to Baseball Reference, the Texas Rangers have had an excellent first half of the season after another big-spending winter.

Even with Jacob deGrom ruled out, Texas has been flying. Their offence is second in wRC+ and third in xwOBA. Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Dane Dunning have been excellent in the rotation.
Will Smith and Josh Sborz have ensured the back-end of the bullpen has been strong, but Texas has the seventh-worst reliever ERA on the season.

Pitching is clearly Texas’ priority, and they moved early by landing Aroldis Chapman on 30th June. While Chapman unquestionably aids their World Series chances, a deep bullpen is needed in October. Give Bruce Bochy options, and the three-time World Series-winning manager can work his magic.

Keynan Middleton and David Robertson are other potential targets. Like the Angels, they could look to Paxton or Giolito for rotation depth.