baseball | Monday, August 15, 2022 11:01 AM

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Moneyline Best Bet: Nats Slide Continues

Sam Cox

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Moneyline Best Bet: Monday, August 15th

The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game series in the nation’s capital on Monday night. Chicago won two of three when they matched up earlier this month, and the Nationals have gone further into the tank since then with the blockbuster Juan Soto and Josh Bell trade.

Washington is 7-15 since the All-Star break and has the most losses in the big leagues. The Cubs are rebuilding too but they are 12-11 since the midsummer classic and have offseason acquisition Marcus Stroman on the bump for the series opener.

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Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Preview
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Preview

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Stroman isn’t having his best year, with an ERA and xERA up in the fours. He matches up with 24-year-old Josiah Gray, owner of a 4.80 ERA and an expected number just below four. It is a close contest on paper.

Stroman hasn’t pitched particularly well of late, and his underlying numbers are generally poor. Gray, though, had an ERA well over six in July. He has continued allowing runs at that rate in August, making him one of the worst starters in the sport. Washington has lost eight of Gray’s last 10 starts.

One of Gray’s best starts of the year came against the Cubs a few days ago, however, with the youngster pitching 6.1 frames for just two earned runs. Repeating such a performance is far from guaranteed with his season-long efforts – Gray has given up a lot of hard contact, and his fastball has been particularly crushed.

This Cubs offence is far from perfect, but where the Nationals flipped their best hitters at the deadline, Chicago opted to retain Ian Happ and Willson Contreras. The Cubs have a team 104 wRC+ against righties since the start of June. Washington is down at 22nd in the Majors since then.

Neither of these line ups are going to give the 1927 Yankees a run for their money, but it’s clear Chicago has the better talent. Shorten the window we’re looking at to since the trade deadline, and the Cubs are the seventh best offence in baseball.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs Best Bet

Like most rebuilders, neither has much to write home about from their respective bullpens. Chicago traded away key relief arms at the trade deadline, while the Nats have one of the worst bullpens in the sport by metrics both traditional and advanced.

Stroman and Gray are probably relatively even, though the veteran has a narrow advantage if anything. Chicago has a considerable advantage with their offence and relief arms, though, which makes it hard to look past them even at 1.75 for the win.

The Cubs have quietly been competitive over the last few weeks – we like their chances to get this week off to a winning start.