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The 9-5 Atlanta Hawks have started the season well, placing third in the Eastern Conference ahead of Wednesday’s game against the Boston Celtics. Atlanta is still home underdogs for this encounter, however, with the Celtics owning an 11-3 record, along with the third-best net rating in the NBA and the league’s best offence.
Boston has won seven in a row, but has health concerns over both Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon coming into this game.
Atlanta comes into this one off the back of a win over the Milwaukee Bucks. Bogdan Bogdanovic is their only absentee.
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Thu, Nov 17. 00:40 (UK time)
High-scoring games have been frequent for both of these teams. Boston has hit the over more than any other team, and only two teams (including Boston) have gone over more than the Hawks. The Celtics have frequently seen north of 240 points. The Hawks have played at a good pace (sixth in the NBA), with three of their last four passing 225.5 total points. This is a lower number than the books have set the line at, but it is a good way to get us started here.
Despite some good defensive performances to start the year, one area of weakness for the Hawks is their fouling. No team allows more free throws per game. Only four players average more free throws than Jayson Tatum, who is in the early MVP running. Tatum has been more aggressive this season, rarely settling for contested jumpers, and is in a group of eight players averaging more than 30 points per game.
Tatum’s scoring line is set at 30.5 for this game. On its own, that’s an appealing prop. For this bet builder, though, the lower line of 24.5 is the preferred option, which Tatum has gone over in all but one game this term.
Just as giving away free points at the stripe is a flaw the Hawks need to address, the Celtics can be vulnerable on the glass. They are 23rd in opponent rebounds per game. Part of this can be attributed to Robert Williams’ absence, and generally playing some smaller line ups. Atlanta is up in the top six in total rebounds per game, with Clint Capela leading the Association in rebounding rate.
Capela is averaging 11.9 per contest, and has had 12 or more in six of his last seven. The over feels a pretty safe wager here if he avoids foul trouble.
Boston deserves to be favoured with their dominant start to the season, but the Hawks are 5-2 at home and the Celtics have suffered two of their three losses on the road.
While it is tempting to back the Celtics moneyline, we are going to give them a few points to take this bet builder to 5.25.
Bet Builder Odds: 5.25
Odds as at 11:00 am on November 16th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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