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The Boston Celtics return to TD Garden this Wednesday night to welcome the Detroit Pistons for the first of their 4 encounters this season. The Celtics have dominated this match-up last season, winning 3 of their 4 clashes, but the Pistons have been killing it against the spread when facing the Celtics. Both teams are coming into this one after a win, but the underdogs are carrying a lot of value tonight.
In this article:
Wed, Nov 9th. 23:30 (UK time)
The Boston Celtics have started the season off in solid fashion, winning 7 of their first 10 games and sitting 3rd in the eastern conference. Their only losses this year have come against the Cavs (2) and the Chicago Bulls. They are now on a 3-game winning streak and heading back to TD Garden after a 2-game road trip. Apart from Gallinari and Williams III, the Celtics aren’t suffering from any major injury absences.
But it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the Celtics under coach Joe Mazzulia, and we may see tonight exactly what’s wrong. As good as the Celtics have been on offence, their defence has left a lot to be desired, and this could prove to be a huge hole in the long term. They have averaged 117.8 ppg on 47.7% shooting from the field to go along with a 3-point percentage of 38.7%. Great, but they’ve also allowed an average of 114.4 ppg with just 5.5 steals per game (30th in NBA) and an opponent 3-point percentage of 36.6%. Whilst this isn’t terrible, it’s simply not good enough for their standards, and ranking 23rd in defensive rating certainly isn’t going to win them a championship this year.
For the Pistons, their start to the season went about as well as one can expect, and they are sitting 14th in the east with 3 wins and 8 losses. They truly are one of the worst teams in the league, averaging just 107.7 pgg with a terrible 3-point percentage of 33.7%. They are 27th in assists in the NBA with just 21.2 per game and they are dead last in field goal percentage with 42.6% Their defence has also been dismal, even for a young team, ranking 30th in defensive rating and allowing 117.5 points per game.
The bookmakers have the Celtics as heavy favourites and expect them to win this one comfortably. They are valued at 1.17 odds to take the dub, whilst the Pistons are at 5.70. Considering the defensive (lack of) effort of both teams, it’s no surprise that the total line is set at 225.5. Tempting, but still a bit too high. I’m rolling with the dogs tonight.
Before you start telling me about how terrible the Pistons are, wait a minute. They are coming off a win, they’ve covered the spread in 3 of their last 5 and they are facing a bad defensive side. Not backing them to win by any means, but the +11.5-point spread is looking tasty. Weak teams win against big spreads, and the Pistons have covered in 8 of their last 10 encounters against the Celtics, including each of the last 5!
Odds as of 2:00 pm November 9th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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