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The Eastern Conference Finals get underway on Wednesday night with the latest instalment of a modern rivalry. Boston and Miami are familiar foes, duelling in the 2020 and 2022 Conference Finals. Miami was victorious in the Bubble, while the Celtics came out on top last season in a gruelling seven-game battle. Jimmy Butler was one three-pointer away from stealing the series.
Boston is the series favourites again here. Miami are eight-point dogs for the series opener at TD Garden. From a talent standpoint, Boston is clearly the superior team, even if Jimmy Butler has been the best player in the Eastern Conference this postseason. This is a two-seed against an eight-seed, a matchup which should be one-way traffic.
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Thu, May 18. 01:30 (UK time)
The Celtics, though, have a knack for making things difficult for themselves. Miami took two of four regular season meetings, and will not be intimidated by an intense atmosphere at the Garden. The Heat will believe they can steal Game One.
One area the Heat will look to target is earning extra possessions. Boston can be careless with the ball. Only three Playoff teams have forced turnovers more frequently than Miami. A huge part of that is the play of Butler, who will be active in passing lanes and aggressive when the Celtics drive into the paint.
Butler has recorded over 1.5 steals in seven of his 10 postseason appearances. Inevitably matched up with the turnover-prone Jaylen Brown on occasion, Butler will have plenty of opportunities to generate steals.
From one star wing to another, Jayson Tatum’s scoring was the headline of the last five quarters against the Sixers, but Tatum’s all-round production is where the value really lies for this game. His shooting has fluctuated throughout these Playoffs, with three games scoring under 20 points.
With Joe Mazzulla favouring smaller line ups, though, Tatum’s rebounding has been invaluable to the Celtics. Per Cleaning The Glass, Tatum has been the best defensive rebounder among forwards this postseason. Miami is a subpar offensive rebounding team.
Tatum, too, has clocked 8.8 potential assists per game. With Bam Adebayo and Butler to guard him, Tatum could be forced into being more of a playmaker than a scorer.
Set to play high thirties minutes at the very least, he’s going to put up numbers even if this is played at a snail’s pace. He’s hit this over in five straight.
While the Celtics are tempting to back on the moneyline, we want to get a flavour for this series before backing either team. Boston’s tendency to blow games they should win is a concern, particularly after their Game One choke against Philadelphia.
Instead, we are wrapping this up with Miami on an alternate points line. They have scored 91+ points in every game since January 20th.
Bet Builder Odds: 4.00
Odds as at 11:00 am May 17th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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