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Another gem from James Harden ensured the Sixers’ season is not on the line when they face the Celtics on Tuesday night. Game Five is so often decisive, though, even with the series tied at two wins apiece. A Philadelphia win would set them up to knock the Celtics out in the City of Brotherly Love later this week. A win for Boston would maintain homecourt advantage.
The bookies inevitably favour the Celtics here. Their two wins this series have come by double digits, while the Sixers have required game-winning shots from Harden in the first and fourth games. The Celtics at their best are better than the Sixers are at their respective peak, but Boston have a vast variation in the quality of their performance from game-to-game and quarter-to-quarter.
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Wed, May 10th 00:30 (UK time)
The Sixers are dealing with their own inconsistency. Much of that can be attributed to the up-and-down nature of Harden’s play. Dominant in one game and unable to make a bucket in the next, it feels like a big ask for the former MVP to back up his Game Four showing at the Garden on Tuesday. He combined for 87 points across Games One and Four. In the second and third contests of this series, he scored a total of 28 points.
We’re fading Harden here. His usage has inevitably dropped after Joel Embiid’s return. If he struggles again, he could well shoot less than 17 times, which makes this 21.5 points line look on the high side. Doc Rivers might aim to utilise Harden as more of a playmaker, with doubts over his conditioning to be able to be productive as a scorer in back-to-back games.
On the other end of the floor, the Sixers have found it hard to contain the Celtics at times. Boston is firing a tonne of threes. Philly’s so-so perimeter defence has been tested, and Rivers is electing to leave certain shooters open, including Al Horford.
Horford has shot 26 threes through four games (more than Jaylen Brown). We like his chances of hitting over 1.5 perimeter shots with Embiid helping off him.
Malcolm Brogdon has also been lights out from downtown, draining 16 of his 30 three-point shots in this series. Playing starter-level minutes off the bench, Brogdon has made over 1.5 threes in all four games. The over is great value here with the Sixers defence being forced into rotation by Boston’s dribble penetration.
The Celtics team total is also a good market to go for. Boston has scored 115 or more points in every game this series, and passed 112 in every game against the Hawks in the first round. Over 110.5 seems a great option with how many threes they are getting up.
Bet Builder Odds: 7.50
Odds as of 9:00 am May 9th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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