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basketball | Tuesday, November 15, 2022 12:57 PM

Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers Best Bet: Back the Clippers in Low-Scoring Night

Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers Best Bet: Back the Clippers in Low-Scoring Night
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Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers Best Bet: Tuesday, November 15th

Despite having covered the spread in all but 1 of their home games up until last night, the Orlando Magic lost to the Charlote Hornets by 105-112, committing 22 turnovers in the process.

Tonight, we’re moving to the Western Conference in search of a comeback and some more beting value. The Dallas Mavericks play host to the Los Angeles Clippers. Both teams are coming off victories, but the Mavs are seen as heavy favourites to the the win. But with with both teams struggling to find their offence so far in the season, I’m expecting a much closer game than the bookmakers suggest.

In this article:

Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers Preview

Wed, 16 Nov. 01:30 (UK Time)

As expected, the Western Conference is once again a very difficult place to get wins, and the Dallas Mavericks have certainly felt it. The difference between the 1st and 8th seed is only 2 wins, and with a 7-5 record to start the season, the Mavs are 6th in the conference. They have won 3 of their last 5 games, and are coming off a 117-112 home win against the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday. They are coming into this game after a 2-day rest, and the only player on the injury report is Davis Bertans, who remains out with a knee effusion.

But what has been the reason behind their struggles? Well, for one, the Mavs are by far the slowest team in the league with a pace rating of 94.9. This leads to fewer possessions per game, along with a heavy reliance on half-court sets. The Mavs are 20th in the NBA in points in the paint with just 45.8 per game, and they rely a lot on 3-point shooting for points, attempting 38.3 per game (7th in NBA). This allows the Mavs to average just 110.5 points per game, ranking them 20th in the league in that regard. Their defence, however, has been a bit better, allowing 107.2 points per game and ranking 9th in defensive rating. That said, they have allowed an opponent field-goal percentage of 47.2% as well as 49.5 points in the paint per game.

In the red corner, we have the Los Angeles Clippers, sitting 7th in the west with 8 wins and 6 losses. They had a similar start to the season to Dallas, and are coming into this one having won 3 of their last 5. The Clippers played last night in Houston and won the first on their 2-game road trip by 122-106. No one really stood out much apart from PG13 with 22 points, but a balanced scoring effort which saw 6 different players scoring in double digits allowed them to cruise to victory.

Despite having two superstar players on their roster, the LA Clippers have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league so far. They play somewhat fast, but they also commit a lot of turnovers, resulting in just 105.2 points per game. Their 3-point percentage isn’t great at 34.0%, but they’ve been making a high percentage of their shots inside the arc at 56.0%. Their defensive rebounding has been exceptional, and they can use their pace to get a lot of easy points against a team that fails to protect the paint. But their biggest strength tonight is going to have to be their defence. The Clippers are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 2nd in defensive rating and allowing just 107.1 points per game. Their inside defence has been great, keeping opponents to 44.9% from the field and allowing just 47.1 points in the paint.

Dallas Mavericks vs Los Angeles Clippers Best Bet

The Mavericks are favoured to win this one at 1.35 odds, whilst the Clippers are valued at 3.30. The spread is set at 7.0 points, but I see this as generous, especially considering the playing style of both teams.

The Mavs are slow, fail to get inside the paint and chuck up a lot of threes. Meanwhile, the Clippers play solid defence and have the ability to outrun slow opponents. I’m not backing the Clippers to pull off the upset, but the +7.0 point spread is very tempting. Only 12% of bettors are placing money onLA to win, but 57% at are picking the Clippers to cover the spread.

  • Selection: LA Clippers +7.0
  • Best odds: 2.00 (Marathonbet)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:00 pm on November 15th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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