Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Bet Builder Tips: Thursday, May 12th
The Dallas Mavericks host the Phoenix Suns on Thursday night. Tipping off at 02:30 (UK time), the Mavericks are facing a win-or-go-home scenario after Phoenix claimed a victory in Game 5. Each team has held serve in this series to date, with the Mavs winning both of their home games by a comfortable margin.
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- Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix SunsAnalysis
- Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Bet Builder Tips
Despite success in their previous two in Texas, Dallas is two-point underdogs for Thursday’s Game 6. Shot Quality’s data paints this as a pretty even series, but the Mavericks’ halfcourt offence was completely stifled in Game 5.
Phoenix has 52 more rebounds and is shooting 42% from deep for the series. Their 71 turnovers is 14 more than the Mavericks, however, and Dallas has got to the line 20 more times. While this isn’t particularly surprising given that the Suns didn’t get to the line much in the regular season, it’s a further indication of how reliant they are on extra possessions and knockdown jump shooting.
The total is set at 212.5. This mark hasn’t been passed in any of the last three games, which includes both of the previous encounters in Dallas. That’s even with both teams overachieving the quality of their shots – this has to be a game to back the under. The under has cashed in seven of the Mavericks’ 11 playoff games to date.
While scoring has been down of late, Devin Booker has still been phenomenal. The All-Star guard has drained three or more threes in each of the last four, and averages over six attempts from deep for the series. Having got up 42 shots over Games 4 and 5, Booker is going to have a heavy workload again on Thursday night. He’s a good bet to continue his three-point shooting streak.
Looking at Dallas, it’s easy to get lured in by Luka Doncic again. He’s a decent wager to reach double figures in rebounds, as he has in three of five. Pairing the rebounds and assists could provide some value, too. Doncic’s assists and rebound numbers have fluctuated throughout the series, however, so instead of going with over 9.5, looking at the milestone market is a better way to go here.
Doncic to reach seven boards is our pick – he’s done so in six of seven playoff games this season, and will once again have a big role on the glass with Dallas playing small.
Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns Bet Builder Tips
- Under 212.5 total points
- Devin Booker over 2.5 threes
- Luka Doncic to record 7+ rebounds
- Jalen Brunson over 15.5 points
Bet Builder is available at bet365 at 5.25 odds as of 3 pm May 12th 2022. Odds may now differ.
Phoenix has generally played Doncic pretty straight up this season. Various defenders have been left to defend the Slovenian one-on-one, with help being far less aggressive than other teams would be. Jalen Brunson has been marginalised at times as the Mavs have settled for too many Doncic isolations.
At their best, Brunson is bringing it up the floor on occasion and getting a lot of opportunities to attack off the bounce when the ball is swung around the perimeter. After a poor first two games, the Mavericks have got Brunson more involved – he’s scored 28, 18 and 21 in the last three.
Taking Brunson’s alternate points line of 15.5 is insurance against a slight drop in usage, and we still get to a longer price than 4/1.