basketball | Monday, February 6, 2023 10:19 AM (Revised at: Monday, February 6, 2023 10:20 AM)

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics Best Bet: Home Dogs Hiding Solid Value

Milan Stanojic

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics Best Bet: Monday, February 6th

The Detroit Pistons are hosting the Boston Celtics tonight at Little Caesars Arena hoping to break their 4-game curse against this team. They faced each other twice this season with the Celtics taking the win in both encounters, but this is a dangerous part of the season with a lot of fatigue and resting going around.

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Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics Preview
Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics Best Bet

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics Preview

Tue, Feb 7th. 00:00 (UK time)

The Detroit Pistons are the second-worst team in the NBA right now, winning just 14 of their 54 games this season, including just 3 of their last 10. They will be finishing up their 3-game homestand tonight before going to Cleveland to face the Cavs. The Pistons are coming off a 100-116 loss to the Phoenix Suns, and have lost both of their games against the Celtics this season. However, this is a dangerous part of the season for backing favourites, and the Pistons have caught my eye today with some nice betting value behind them.

Yes, they have been terrible on both sides of the floor this season, but if you take a look at their recent performances, it has been a different story. The Pistons are ranking 17th in offensive, and defensive rating over the last 5 games, and have covered the spread in 3. They have also ranked 11th in pace rating whilst making it rain from downtown, draining 14 threes per game. The Pistons are using this part of the season when most teams are fatigued to get themselves going a bit, and although I expect this to drop off at some point, they are carrying some nice value.

There isn’t that much to say about the Celtics at this point that hasn’t already been said. They are leading the Eastern Conference right now and tied with the Nuggets for the most wins, but have a slightly better winning percentage. Their performance on the road has been slightly worse on the road, but they still have a more than respectable 17-9 record away from TD Garden.

But their recent performances haven’t been very good in terms of betting as the Celtics have covered the spread in just 3 of their last 10 games. They have also lost to the Magic, Heat, Knicks and Suns during this stretch, all teams they should have beaten without many issues. The Celtics have also ranked 18th in offensive rating over their last 5 games (1 spot below the Pistons), and they are ranking 25th in pace rating. They are still winning a lot of their games, and there is little doubt on my side they will get the job done tonight, but how big will the winning margin be?

Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics Best Bet

The value is with the Pistons in this one. The vast majority of bettors are picking the Celtics to win, but 97% of the money is with the hosts. That’s usually more than enough to get me interested, but when you take into account the 11.5 points in the handicap market, it’s a done deal.

The line opened at 12 and has started shortening, so I wouldn’t waste too much time waiting around. I’m backing the Pistons to cover the spread tonight against a team that has underperformed a bit recently, and the cushion should get us over the edge.