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The 8-3 Cleveland Cavaliers are 2.5-point underdogs for their Friday night matchup with the Golden State Warriors at Chase Center. Golden State is just 4-7 on the young season, with fundamental questions already being asked about the rotation amid some alarming struggles from their young bench.
The Warriors’ season is a tale of two teams; the established, dominant starters, and the raw, overmatched youngsters. Of line-ups to play 100 or more possessions, the Dubs’ starters have the fifth-best point differential. At the other end of the spectrum, Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman are in the bottom six for player point differential when they are on the court.
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Sat, Nov 12. 03:10 (UK time)
As their record indicates, Cleveland’s start to the season has been considerably smoother. Yes, the Warriors are 4-1 at home, but the Cavs are 4-3 on the road and have seamlessly integrated Donovan Mitchell while playing some stifling defence. Reputation rather than 2022-23 performance has made the Warriors favourites for this game.
The Cavs are 11th in opponent three-point shot volume, and middle-of-the-pack in stopping shots at the rim. They are 12th in offensive rebounding rate and the best at grabbing opponent misses. Fouling can be a problem, but they also get to the line frequently, meaning they are not in a free-throw deficit.
Mitchell has upped his defensive effort, but it is naturally his scoring which captures the headlines. The former Jazz guard averages 31.9 points per game this season – he has scored 30 or more in five of his last six and seven of 10 overall. Bettors can feel confident taking his over here against a Warriors defence languishing in 27th.
In the opposing backcourt, it is always a mistake to overlook Steph Curry. The Warriors might have a poor record, but it is nothing to do with the defending Finals MVP. After a disappointing regular season in 2021-22 by his historic standards, Curry has been scorching to start 2022-23.
The scoring numbers, though, are not what really stands out from a betting perspective. Instead, Curry for over 11.5 rebounds and assists is the pick here – he averages a combined 14 for the season, and has passed this line in six of seven.
Let’s turn to the second Splash Brother. Klay Thompson started the season slowly, and he’s clearly still playing through some rust, but the shot volume is there to feel good about two or more threes from the five-time All-Star. Thompson has had double-digit three-point attempts in his last three games and has drained two or more in four of his last five.
Despite losses in their last two, there is clearly value backing Cleveland here. Taking the visitors on the moneyline or even at +2.5 isn’t worthwhile in a bet builder, however. Their three losses have been by a grand total of 12 points, seven of which was in the defeat to the Kings last time out. We can feel comfortably taking the Cavs +5.5.
Bet Builder Odds: 5.25 (track)
Odds as of 12:00 pm November 11th, 2022. Odds may now differ.
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