Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Bet Builder Tips: Friday, May 20th
Game 2 of the series between the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks takes place tonight at 02:00 (UK time) at Chase Center in San Francisco, California. The Warriors are up 1-0 in the series after that amazing performance last time around, but will they be able to do it once again, or will we see the Mavs bouncing back?
In this article:
- Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis
- Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Bet Builder Tips
The Golden State Warriors took care of business on defence in Game 1 of the series and easily came out on top with a 112-87 result. They were able to put the clamps down on the Mavs’ main ball handler Luka Doncic, allowing him just 20 points and causing him to turn the ball over 7 times. They didn’t have a standout performance on their side either, but a balanced scoring effort saw 7 different players scoring in double digits as well as 24 assists in the game.
The Warriors have already been in this position multiple times in the past decade, and they have what it takes to make it out of the series. They have played elite defence all season long, whilst allowing just 105.4 points in their last 5 playoff games. They love playing at Chase Center, where they have won 31 of their 41 games in the regular season, as well as each of their 7 home games in the playoffs. But there’s a catch – the value is with Dallas tonight.
Why? Well, first of all, the Mavs are valued at 3.15 odds to win tonight, and the Warriors are at 1.38. Second, 91% of bettors are backing the Warriors to win, and you can bet the bookies are underestimating the dogs. Dallas lost their opening game of the series on the road, but they also went down 2-0 against the Suns before coming back to win the series. Yes, I agree that their performance last game was unacceptable, but I see the +6.5-point spread as simply too high. There is definitely some value here.
It seems like most of the betting world has forgotten how difficult the Mavericks can be to take down when they are playing their game. Dallas allowed an average of just 104.7 points per game this regular season, and their slow and deliberate style of play makes them an ideal playoff team. That said, they have relied a lot on Doncic to carry the scoring load this season, and we saw last game that this simply won cut it against Steve Kerr’s boys. They need to move the ball more and allow Dinwiddie and Brunson to get into their groove. That said, they allowed 112.0 points last game and I expect Jason Kidd to insist on a much higher defensive effort this time around.
Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Builder Tips
- Under 214.5 Points
- Mavericks +6.5
- Draymond Green Over 8.5 Rebounds
- Luka Doncic Under 31.5 Points
Bet Builder is available at odds of 15.00
Odds as at 2 pm May 20th. Odds may now differ.
The Warriors’ key to victory last game was their elite defence, which we have witnessed all season long, and you can bet Steve Kerr will come into Game 2 with more or less the same battle plan. But the Mavs also know what they need to do. They allowed 44 points in the paint last game, and their defence as a whole needs to come out ready tonight. I’m expecting a classic low-scoring playoff game between these two.
That said, fewer points usually means the spread should be just a couple of points, but not tonight. It looks like the bookies expect another easy victory for the Warriors, and so do most bettors. But if you know your betting value, the Mavs are looking very tempting right about now. Nobody is backing them, the spread is too high for a playoff game, and I have no problem backing them against the spread.
I backed Draymond to get more than 8.5 rebounds last game expecting him to play a lot of minutes, but Big Dray got 9 in just 29 minutes of action with Looney as the starting centre. Draymond is their main defensive anchor, and should this game be as close as I expect, we will surely see him on the floor for 35+ minutes. This usually means double digits in the rebounding department, making the 8.5 rebound mark very reachable.
We all know what Luka Doncic is capable of doing when he gets hot, but is this going to happen tonight? Well, Andrew Wiggins did an excellent job defending him last game when Luka finished with just 20 points on the board on just 6-18 from the field. Although I expect a much better performance from the Mavs this time around, I don’t think it will be because Luka explodes for a high-scoring game. Defence is the name of the game and I see the 31.5 point mark as too high tonight.