Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Bet Builder Tips: Wednesday, April 27th
The Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets at Chase Center tonight at 03:00 (UK time) hoping to put an end to this series with another dominant home performance. They are still up 3-1 in the series, but Denver came out on top last time around with a terrific 3-point shooting night. I’ve got a 4-piece Bet Builder ready for tonight, so take a look at the article below to see my analysis & picks.
In this article:
- Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Analysis
- Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Bet Builder Tips
The Golden State Warriors are in an excellent position at the moment, travelling back to Chase Center with a 3-1 lead, and looking to close out the series in friendly territory. They were one of the best teams in the league during the regular season, finishing 3rd in the west with 53 wins and 29 losses. The Warriors were the top-rated defensive side in the league, allowing just 105.5 points per game and keeping opponents to a field goal percentage of just 43.8%. They were also the second-best home team ATS this year, covering in 61.0% of their games.
On the other side, injuries prevented the Nuggets from reaching their full potential this regular season, with MPJ and Jamal Murray missing the entire season. Mike Malone’s team finished 6th in the west, securing a playoff spot and avoiding the play-in tournament, but they are facing a first-round exit once again. Despite having one of the best offences in the NBA, the Nuggets were an average defensive side, allowing 110.4 points per game and netting just 3.7 blocks per game.
The Golden State Warriors started the series perfectly, getting a 2-0 lead at home, and winning another game in Denver. It was complete domination on both sides of the floor that brought Steve Kerr’s squad the impressive lead in the series, as they had an aggregate 367-326 result in the first 3 games. however, Denver turned the tables last time around with a close 126-121 victory at home, with Jokic going for 37 points and 6 assists. Monte Morris also chipped in with 24 points, as well as Aaron Gordon with 21. Denver shot 15/31 from beyond the arc, that’s 48.4%, well beyond their season average of 35.3%.
But the match-up is moving back to Oakland, where Golden State dominated the series, and they are heavy favourites to get the job done at home at 1.22 odds. 93% of bettors are backing them to close out the series tonight, but where exactly is the value? The spread is set at 9.0 points, but it’s a Game 5 elimination, and anything can happen, which is why I’m looking at the Over/Under market for value in this one. That said, there are some very tempting picks for this bet builder, so feel free to take a look below.
Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets Bet Builder Tips
- Over 226.5 Points
- Stephen Curry Over 5.5 assists
- Draymond Green Over 7.5 Rebounds
- Nikola Jokic Over 4.5 turnovers
Bet Builder is available at 15.00 odds
Odds via Bet365. Correct as at 2 pm on 27th April 2022. Odds may now differ.
The Warriors and Nuggets combined for an average of 235 points per game so far in the series. The Nuggets have been terrible defensively, and this series has been the complete opposite of a gritty, defensive playoff match-up. The Over/Under line is simply set too low, and I expect this one to easily go over.
Steph Curry has averaged 6.3 assists per game this year, and since his return from injury, he has been terrific for the Warriors. Steph came off the bench in their last game and went off for 33 points and 8 assists in a road game in 37 minutes of action, and I expect Steve Kerr to let him play higher minutes tonight as well. He went under in the first 2 games of the series, but the line is still set too low at 5.5 assists.
Draymond finished last game early due to fouling out, but still tallied 13 points and 11 rebounds in the game. He is a key part of their defensive schemes, and Kerr will rely on him to play his defence and crash the boards. Draymond averaged 7.3 boards per game during the regular season on just 28.9 minutes per game, and I expect his increase in minutes to directly increase his rebounding numbers.
Unfortunately, Jokic has had to take up a large part of the team’s offence and he will likely be the centre of Golden State’s attention once again. He had a terrific game last time out but also finished the game with 7 turnovers. I expect double teams, physicality and a lot of pressure from the Warriors on him tonight, which will likely result in another turnover-heavy outing.