basketball | Monday, December 5, 2022 12:28 PM (Revised at: Monday, December 5, 2022 12:29 PM)

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Best Bet: Grizz to Add Another Home Win

Sam Cox

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Best Bet: Monday, December 5th

The 14-9 Memphis Grizzlies are 2.5-point favourites over the 11-12 Miami Heat on Monday night. Memphis is on the second night of a back-to-back after beating the Detroit Pistons on Sunday, while this is the first night of a back-to-back for Miami.

It was one win apiece in their meetings last season. Miami won by 26 points on their trip to Memphis, and held the Grizz to under 40% from the field.

Memphis is depleted for this game with Desmond Bane, Danny Green and Ziaire Williams confirmed absentees. Steven Adams is listed as questionable and didn’t suit up on Sunday against Detroit. Miami are without Victor Oladipo and Omer Yurtseven, while Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Dewayne Dedmon and Gabe Vincent are day-to-day.

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Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Preview
Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Best Bet

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Preview

Tue, Dec 06. 01:10 (UK time)

Neither of these teams have been scorching hot of late. They share a 5-5 record across the previous 10 games, though the Grizzlies are 11th in net rating over that period and Miami is down in 22nd. Both are above average defensively, but the Heat are languishing in 26th in offence and the Grizzlies hover around league average.

Miami remains a poor halfcourt offensive team. They are, however, coming into this game after an impressive win over the Boston Celtics, which saw four of their starters score 20 or more points. The shot profile is decent, with a lot of threes being taken, which can exploit a weakness in the Grizzlies defence (only five teams allow more perimeter shots than the Grizz).

The turnover battle is key here. Miami allows the second-most transition opportunities, and it is no secret the Grizzlies love to get out and run. Memphis is sixth in transition frequency and fifth in points per play. With Miami only around middle of the pack in turnover rate over the last 10, there will be plenty of opportunities for the Grizzlies to push the pace.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Best Bet

Just two teams have covered the spread less frequently than the Heat in 2022-23. Memphis has a whopping 7-3 record against the spread at home.

There isn’t a massive gap between these two teams in season-long net rating or recent performance. Their records are further apart than most underlying numbers indicate they should be, and the Grizzlies have a rest disadvantage. Miami has two good road wins of late over Boston and Atlanta, yet they are 3-8 away this season, while the Grizzlies have won eight of their 10 home games by three or more points.

It’s hard to bet against the Heat due to their high ceiling on any given night. Going to Memphis with Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr healthy is one of the toughest road games in the Association at the moment, though, and they are a good bet to cover this small spread.