basketball | Wednesday, March 8, 2023 12:37 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, March 8, 2023 1:01 PM)

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Best Bet: Mitchell’s Hot Streak Ends

Milan Stanojic

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Best Bet: Wednesday, March 8th

Following our win on Monday backing the Cavs, we are back with another best bet for tonight. This time, it’s the Miami heat who will be hosting the Cavs at FTX Arena. They have already met twice this season, both times in Cleveland, but the series is moving to Miami now for 2 games tonight and on Friday. I’m expecting another low-scoring game tonight, so have a look at the article below for my analysis & best bet.

In this article:

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Preview
Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Best Bet

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Preview

Thu, Mar 9th. 00:30 (UK time)

The Miami Heat aren’t having a very good season at the moment, sitting in 7th seed in the Eastern Conference with a 35-31 record. They have won their last 2 games and are coming off a close 130-128 home win against the Atlanta Hawks. They have seen some very high-scoring games lately, but the trend this season has been the complete opposite. The Heat have fared very well at home this season, winning 21 of their 33 games, and they have already stolen one of the road games against the Cavs this year. Kyle Lowry will miss tonight’s game due to a knee injury whilst Kevin Love is listed as ‘questionable’

The Miami Heat are the 3rd-slowest team in the league this year with a pace rating of just 96.6 and a lot of their games have seen very few points. They are scoring only 108.5 points per game while allowing 109.1 (2nd in NBA). When playing at home, the Heat allow just 108.7 points per game and point guards usually struggle to score when facing them. They are facing an even slower team tonight, and it’s fair to say we can expect a very low-scoring game here.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are having an amazing season so far, sitting 4th in the east with a 41-26 record and a 61.2% winning percentage. They are on a 2-game winning streak and coming off a 118-114 win against the Celtics at home, where they cashed our moneyline ticket in overtime. However, the Cavs are 13-19 when playing on the road this year, as well as 13-17-2 against the spread and backing them on the road has not been a good idea.

The Cavs are even slower than the Heat with a pace rating of 95.6 and just 99.8 possessions per game (30th in the NBA). They are only averaging 112.1 points per game (25th) and despite having a very efficient offence, most of their games aren’t very high-scoring.

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Best Bet

Donovan Mitchell is having a terrific season for the Cavs, averaging 27.6 points, almost 5 assists and 4 rebounds per game. Over the last 10-game stretch- he has been scoring an impressive 31.3 points per game and is coming off a 40-point explosion against Boston. We thank him for his services and for helping us cash our ticket, but it’s time to stab him in the back.

We’re taking the Under on Mithhell’s 26.5-point line. Why? We have already established that we are expecting a low number of possessions tonight and very low scoring numbers. But, in their 2 meetings this season against the Heat, Mitchell has averaged a disappointing 14.5 points. The Heat are very good in defending the pg position, allowing an average of 22.42 points per game, ranking them 5th in the NBA in that regard. The 26.5 points line looks a bit too high all things considered, and I see some nice value in backing the under.