basketball | Thursday, March 30, 2023 10:40 AM

Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Best Bet: Back Bucks To Land Crucial Win

Sam Cox

Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Best Bet: Thursday, March 30th

Three games separate the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics at the top of the Eastern Conference. Just a few days ago, this threatened to be a showdown for the number one seed, but Milwaukee’s wins over Detroit and Indiana, paired with Boston’s loss to Washington, have all but confirmed the Bucks will have homecourt throughout the playoffs.

Boston is also at little threat of falling to third anymore. They have a two-game lead over the Sixers, plus hold the tiebreaker over their historic rivals.

Milwaukee might be on the second night of a back-to-back, but it is likely they have Khris Middleton and Jae Crowder available after the veteran duo sat out the Wednesday night win over the Pacers. Robert Williams III, Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard are all questionable for the Celtics.

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Preview
Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Best Bet

Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Preview

Fri, Mar 31. 00:30 (UK time)

These teams have generally been seen as the two superpowers in the Eastern Conference, and are considered by many as the two most complete teams in the Association. As such, Milwaukee being three-point favourites with a rest disadvantage might seem surprising.

The picture is less clear cut more recently, however. Boston got off to a scorching start before slowing up. Milwaukee’s season has been a mirror image, with Middleton getting healthier, and depth pieces improving. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been relentless.

Since 15th January, Milwaukee are a league-leading 28-5 with the best net rating in the NBA. Boston has gone a comparatively pedestrian 20-12 over that period, with their offence ranking down in 11th. Their defence places well, but they have had some poor nights on that end, and could be particularly vulnerable to Antetokounmpo if Robert and Grant Williams are unavailable.

Boston blew out the Bucks on Christmas Day thanks to some knockdown three-point shooting. Milwaukee needed overtime to beat a weakened Celtics in February.

The Celtics certainly have the outside shooting to win on Thursday night, but there is a dependence on their perimeter shots falling. You only need to think back to the 2022 Playoffs for a reminder of how they struggle with Giannis.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Best Bet

Milwaukee’s defence is also set up to contain Boston. Under Joe Mazzulla, the Cs have been a high-variance team with their reliance on three-pointers. The Bucks allow the fourth-fewest threes in the league, they concede the second-fewest fouls, and have three Defensive Player of the Year calibre players.

Sure, being on the second night of a back-to-back isn’t ideal, but the possible returns of Middleton and Crowder ease that burden. Milwaukee has also covered in 64.7% of games with a rest disadvantage this season, and kept its starters below 33 minutes on Wednesday.

It takes a lot to bet against the Bucks in 2023. With some key injury concerns, and having seen several flaws in this Celtics team lately, we are backing the hosts to cover a small spread at Fiserv Forum.