basketball | Wednesday, October 26, 2022 10:35 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, October 26, 2022 10:36 AM)

Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets Best Bet: Back Bucks to Beat Brooklyn on Wednesday Night

Sam Cox

Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets Best Bet: Wednesday, October 26th

The 2-0 Milwaukee Bucks are well-rested for their Wednesday night game with the Brooklyn Nets in Wisconsin. Brooklyn is 1-2 with the worst defence in the NBA after their Monday night loss to Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies.

The home team remain without Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles, but that hasn’t stopped them beating the Rockets and Sixers. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been typically dominant, while Brook Lopez has looked fresh-footed after a 2021-22 season disrupted by injuries.

Brooklyn is missing Seth Curry, T.J. Warren and Markieff Morris. Joe Harris returned a couple of games ago in a bench role.

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets Preview
Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets Best Bet

Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets Preview

Thu, Oct 27. 00:30 (UK time)

Where the Bucks’ identity is clear, even without Middleton, the Nets are in disarray on the court (rather than off it, for a change). Ben Simmons has been fouling at an alarming rate. The spacing on offence is woeful with Simmons and Nic Claxton together, but the defence is insufficient when they play one non-shooter. Steve Nash will have to go with size against Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.

The shot-making of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving gives Brooklyn a chance in any game. Durant was spectacular when these teams met in the playoffs in 2021, yet even those two offensive geniuses could find it difficult with the paint so congested. The Nets are eighth in mid-range frequency, and second in mid-range efficiency. The Bucks have been forcing opponents into more mid-rangers than previous seasons, but their length makes it difficult to get off good shots. Opponents – admittedly in a tiny sample – are shooting just over 33% on mid-range attempts.

Rebounding is inevitably an issue for the Nets here, too. They are 29th in defensive rebounding rate. The Bucks do not attack the offensive glass under Mike Budenholzer, but the size of Antetokounmpo, Lopez, Bobby Portis and Serge Ibaka will inevitably generate some extra possessions.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets Best Bet

Both of the Nets’ losses have been pretty emphatic. The combination of a clunky offence and a league-worst defence is not what you need when you’re facing a team many would consider the title favourites.

Simmons, already fouling out of games, will have to deal with Antetokounmpo, who relentlessly attacks the basket and draws a tonne of fouls. The Nets need their offence to explode to stand a chance here, and that probably means playing smaller line ups to get Harris and Patty Mills on the floor more often.

The Bucks are light years ahead of the Nets. Middleton’s absence makes this closer than it could be, but bookies continue to overvalue Brooklyn.