basketball | Sunday, January 1, 2023 2:54 PM (Revised at: Monday, January 2, 2023 3:01 PM)

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Best Bet: Favoured Nuggets To Win On The Road

Sam Cox

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Best Bet: Monday, January 2nd

The 24-12 Denver Nuggets are three-point favourites over the 16-21 Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night. Denver is on the second night of a back-to-back, with their 12-point win over the Boston Celtics on Sunday maintaining their position atop the Western Conference.

Jamal Murray was held out of Sunday’s contest, keeping him fresh for the trip to Minnesota. Michael Porter Jr isn’t likely to play this one, with Denver wanting to manage his workload carefully. Jeff Green and Collin Gillespie are both out for the road team.

The hosts remain without Karl-Anthony Towns, Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin. They have lost six in a row. It has been an ugly first half of the season for the Timberwolves after going all-in on Rudy Gobert, and they are bound to be at the centre of speculation as the trade deadline approaches.

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Preview
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Best Bet

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Preview

Tue, Jan 03. 01:00 (UK time)

These teams are yet to face off this season. There is little in common between the two ballclubs in 2022-23, however. Denver plays at below-league average pace, despite pushing the ball a bit more than other seasons of the Nikola Jokic era. Minnesota runs a lot, ranking third in pace. This is one of the few categories where the Timberwolves are near the top of the league, with an average defence and subpar offence.

Minnesota is in the bottom 10 in turnovers and rebounding. Only Miami and Dallas have covered the spread less frequently.
Denver, led by the incomparable Jokic, is dominant on the glass. They shoot a shade below 40% from three. Through a combination of smart cutting and Jokic’s bullyball, they are an elite team when it comes to getting to the rim. It is no secret that the Joker has enjoyed a lot of success against Rudy Gobert, posting some outrageous numbers during Gobert’s time in Utah.Minnesota’s defence has not been elevated as much as Chris Finch would have hoped by Gobert. They are only a shade above average at defending the basket in both frequency and efficiency. The team gives up far too many threes. While this isn’t an area the Nuggets are likely to exploit as much as others might due to their low three-point volume, they still have the personnel to knock down open shots.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Best Bet

The Timberwolves have an ugly 6-11 against the spread record as an underdog. While Denver has had its slip ups on the road, and they are at a rest disadvantage here, it is still a surprise to see the spread at such a small number.

Michael Malone’s team are rolling with seven wins in eight games. It is not over-the-top to say the Timberwolves are in disarray (again). Don’t be put off by Denver’s 5-8 ATS record as a road favourite – back the two-time MVP to lead a comfortable road win here.

Selection: Denver Nuggets -3
Best Odds: 2.00 (Unibet)
Stakes: 6/10

Odds as of 2:00 pm January 2nd, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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